Major leaks in my game or simply variance? A few hands..

castigar · #1 08-01-2007, 10:36 PM

I think my game has somewhat "improved" lately but my winrate has greatly decreased (this last week (10k last hands) it became a lossrate..).

I know it could be variance but could it be that I'm now too easily bluffable? Given a particular line from vilain, I know when I'm supposed to be beat and I fold my hand maybe too fast?

Please review these few hands, they were some of my big losses today. Thanks a bunch! I'll stay around to answer questions =o

*** Hand 1 ***

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $24.75
BB: $10.70
Hero (UTG): $27.55
MP: $26.70
CO: $52.95
BTN: $36.85

Reads: Vilain's stats were 27.85/16.5/2.2. Seemed like a pretty standard player from the first hands I saw from him.

Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
Hero raises to $1.10, MP calls $1.10, 4 folds

Flop: ($2.55) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $2.25, MP calls $2.25

Turn: ($7.05) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, MP bets $3.75, Hero folds
Uncalled bet of $3.75 returned to MP

Pot Size: $7.05 ($0.35 Rake)

*** Hand 2 ***

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $25.60
BB: $22.55
Hero (UTG): $24.65
MP: $29.90
CO: $51.30
BTN: $26.70

Reads: Vilain was quite bad, 40/10/3. I had to call the river..right?

Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
Hero raises to $1.10, 2 folds, BTN calls $1.10, SB calls $1.00, BB folds

Flop: ($3.55) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.50, BTN calls $2.50, SB folds

Turn: ($8.55) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $5.50, BTN calls $5.50

River: ($19.55) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $6.25, Hero calls $6.25

Pot Size: $32.05 ($1.60 Rake)

*** Hand 3 ***

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $26.50
Hero (BB): $28.10
UTG: $81.05
CO: $87.05
BTN: $30.15

Reads: Vilain is 25/15,5/3.7, a TAG. That's why I folded. I said to myself> Why would a TAG go AI on such a board without a minimum of a big overpair. At the time I thought I was beat, but now that I rewatched the hand, I'm quite sure I was ahead or close to it. What do you guys think?

Here's what I got from pokerstove
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.118% 49.99% 01.13% 47013 1063.50 { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 48.882% 47.75% 01.13% 44910 1063.50 { 66+, 44, A2s+ }

Preflop: Hero is dealt 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, CO raises to $1.00, BTN calls $1.00, SB calls $0.90, Hero calls $0.75

Flop: ($4) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.25, 2 folds, SB raises all-in to $25.50, Hero folds
Uncalled bet of $22.25 returned to SB

Pot Size: $10.50 ($0.50 Rake)

*** Hand 4 ***

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

Hero (SB): $33.65
BB: $169.65
UTG: $29.70
CO: $23.95
BTN: $54.55

Reads: Here again, vilain is a tag 20/15.5/3

We've battled it up a few times before and I've shown some big hands and he did too.

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 Players)
2 folds, BTN raises to $0.85, Hero calls $0.75, BB folds

Flop: ($1.95) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.45, Hero raises to $5.00, BTN raises all-in to $53.70, Hero folds
Uncalled bet of $48.70 returned to BTN

Pot Size: $11.95 ($0.55 Rake)

*** Hand 5 ***

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $19.95
BB: $27.20
UTG: $54.45
CO: $27.50
Hero (BTN): $25.25

Reads: Vilain is 19/13.5/4.6.

Here's what I got from PT.. Good call of mine?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.685% 34.79% 09.90% 10332 2939.50 { AdKh }
Hand 1: 55.315% 45.42% 09.90% 13489 2939.50 { QQ+, 22, A9s+, KQs, AKo, KcQd }

Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 Players)
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, SB calls $0.75, BB folds

Flop: ($1.95) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB bets $1.50, Hero raises to $6.00, SB raises all-in to $19.10, Hero calls $13.10

Turn: ($40.15) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In)

River: ($40.15) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In)

Pot Size: $40.15 ($2 Rake)

*** Hand 6 ***

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

Hero (SB): $25.00
BB: $39.60
UTG: $69.60
MP: $46.00
CO: $36.50
BTN: $20.55

Reads: Vilain is 70/25/5. Am I supposed to keep calling PSB with a pair of 6?

Preflop: Hero is dealt 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG folds, MP calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, BB folds, MP calls $1.50

Flop: ($3.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $2.50, MP calls $2.50

Turn: ($8.75) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, MP bets $8.75, Hero folds
Uncalled bet of $8.75 returned to MP

Pot Size: $8.75 ($0.40 Rake)

*** Hand 7 ***

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $44.15
BB: $40.15
UTG: $22.30
MP: $53.65
CO: $7.35
Hero (BTN): $29.25

Reads: Vilain is 24/16/2. Nothing else on him.

Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players)
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, SB folds, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.80) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, BB raises to $2.50, Hero calls $1.25

Turn: ($6.80) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB bets $4.75, Hero folds
Uncalled bet of $4.75 returned to BB

Pot Size: $6.80 ($0.30 Rake)

castigar · #2 08-01-2007, 11:41 PM

I know there are a lot of hands but I'll take opinions on any of them..

Gorvacofin · #3 08-01-2007, 11:42 PM

I think hand 2 is a fold. I throw up on the river - it completes a lot of the draws he might have been playing, plus he could have been slowplaying an 8 all along.

castigar · #4 08-01-2007, 11:46 PM

You think he could be calling my bets all the way with a gutshot? You're right for the FD though..But you don't think a donk like this could bluff this river 20% of the time? These are the odds he's giving me.

blah-blah-blah · #5 08-02-2007, 12:02 AM

hand 1: I might call the turn since we're open ended but folding is not bad.

hand 2: please fold the river. every draw got there.

hand 3: this one could be close but if villian is a competent TAG then its a fold. he's never shoving a smaller overpair.

hand 4: you coulda had the best hand but you had to fold. the c/r was not a good idea i c/c here and take it from there.

hand 5: you forgot hands like JTs and T9 suited. also u having Kh cuts down on his semi bluffing hands so I really thik this is 22/KQ a lot so I fold.

hand 6: i would bet the turn. he's really loose so you're probably ahead but I don't think you can give up the lead OOP here.

hand 7: standard.

castigar · #6 08-02-2007, 12:17 AM

Hand 5, I added TJs and T9s the his range.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.909% 37.56% 10.35% 28942793 7972795.50 { QQ+, 22, A9s+, KQs, JhTh, Th9h, AKo, KcQd }
Hand 1: 52.091% 41.74% 10.35% 32165296 7972795.50 { AdKh }

I'm still ahead. So I guess it still was a good call.

castigar · #7 08-02-2007, 12:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]

hand 4: you coulda had the best hand but you had to fold. the c/r was not a good idea i c/c here and take it from there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why wasn't it a good idea? A lot of people like to c/r flop with top pair.. If he stays, then you know he's strong.

justhetip · #8 08-02-2007, 12:28 AM

I think you are a good player and it is mostly variance. All hands are played well barring the AK one, where you should have folded to his all in