KQo in 3bet pot

ThePlan · #1 07-30-2007, 10:49 PM

Villain is TAG

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($200)
UTG ($377.15)
MP ($178)
Button ($235.70)
Hero ($233.80)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, Button raises to $6, Hero raises to $20, 1 fold, Button calls $14.

Flop: ($42) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $30, Button raises to $60

phobos · #2 07-30-2007, 10:54 PM

SHOVE

loosbastard · #3 07-30-2007, 10:57 PM

Don't think you have like any FE...but I shove.

DaCooler · #4 07-30-2007, 11:00 PM

im not a big fan of a shove, but i dont know how to play it any diff., i 3 bet bigger here to make this easier

Oct0puz · #5 07-30-2007, 11:10 PM

call with great odds and fold if you don't hit on the turn.

Kilillan · #6 07-30-2007, 11:28 PM

there's still room to call

bruin · #7 07-31-2007, 01:13 AM

Could a math guy show me how to calculate how often villain has to fold if we shove (including our 28% or so equity when called) to make this a zero EV play? I really suck at math and I'm trying to get this back into my game.

Casper05 · #8 07-31-2007, 01:21 AM

He still has 150 behind and if he thinks we are 3betting light (which I was assuming) He would take this line with complete air often enough to make a shove +EV.

bruin · #9 07-31-2007, 01:52 AM

sorry, but i meant the actual math (arithmetic) behind the calculation... i tried to do it by hand and wasn't sure of where i was going. like how often does villain have to fold to make this a profitable shove, and how to calculate that.

Novles · #10 07-31-2007, 02:19 AM

When we shove, he calls and we win, we get $286.
When we shove, he calls and we lose, we lose $184.
When we shove and he folds, we get $132.

Assuming a range of:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

38,610 games 0.015 secs 2,574,000 games/sec

Board: Ts Jd 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.359% 35.05% 00.31% 13534 118.00 { KsQc }
Hand 1: 64.641% 64.34% 00.31% 24840 118.00 { TT+, 33, AJs, KJs, QJs, JTs, AJo }

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When he calls, we have an EV of -$20 = ($286*.35)-($184*.65). When he folds, we have an EV of $132. I don't know if there's an easy way to solve for x, but you can get pretty close just by taking 20/132. So if he folds about 15% of the time and his this call range, a push is nuetral.