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#1
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I've been thinking recently about hands where I am leading postflop, I make it expensive for a villain to outdraw me, and I end up paying him off when he does. Am I making the bigger mistake of paying him off or is he the one making the mistake by calling? I listed an example below where I was leading on the flop, and I end up giving the SB (who had 89) 1.6:1 odds of making his OESD on the turn. So ... ((6:1 - 1.6:1) * $36) = $158.4 that villain has to make every time he calls my raise. (Straight Odds- Pot Odds) * Pot Size. Now villain made his straight in this example and I paid him off - which afterwards I figured I made the larger mistake because I put $300 in the pot when I only expect to get ~ $26 back on average (outdrawing villains straight by making a full house on the river)
And this is where I get confused because villain WONT make $158.4 on average since he does not hit his straight enough times to make calling my flop raise profitable ... I don't know, can anyone help explain to me.. I have to be making the MUCH bigger mistake since I put in $300 when I was behind and villain only put in $36 when he was behind... right? SB: $493.00 BB: $190.00 UTG: $48.00 Hero (CO): $337.45 BTN: $218.15 Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 Players) UTG calls $2.00, Hero calls $2.00, BTN folds, SB calls $1.00, BB checks Flop: ($8) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 Players) SB checks, <font color="red">BB bets $8.00</font>, UTG calls $8.00, <font color="red">Hero raises to $36.00</font>, SB calls $36.00, BB calls $28.00, UTG calls $28.00 Turn: ($152) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 Players) SB checks, <font color="red">BB bets $56.00</font>, UTG calls all-in for $10.00, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $299.45</font>, SB calls $299.45, BB calls all-in for $96.00 River: ($912.90) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 Players - 3 All-In) Pot Size: $912.90 ($3 Rake) |
#2
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This hand isn't HU.
If the BB and UTG aren't involved, he's making a mistake calling on the flop and then you rectify that for him when he fills. With the other two in there...he's money. (Note: I had to look at this six times and everytime I went back I noticed something new "Oh UTG is there too", "Oh he had the nuts on the turn", etc...in the event that I missed some other important fact, I apologize) |
#3
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Pushing on the turn was terrible. Did you even stop to think what they all called your flop raise with? In this spot, I am expecting to see a set and a straight and I never bet this turn.
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#4
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[ QUOTE ]
I put $300 in the pot when I only expect to get ~ $26 back on average (outdrawing villains straight by making a full house on the river) [/ QUOTE ] 4 outs out of 44 cards means you fill up about 1/11 of the time, and win the $910 pot, so you expect to get back $910/11, about $82. I'm not sure where you got the $26. When you pushed, the pot wasn't $910, but you also don't put $300 in unless the SB calls. [ QUOTE ] villain WONT make $158.4 on average since he does not hit his straight enough times to make calling my flop raise profitable ... [/ QUOTE ] First, the $158 is a miscalculation. Second, he invested $36 with 8 nut outs, and netted $600. He can't be sure it will be a nice multiway pot, or that he would get paid off that much, but I think it's an easy, profitble call. There is a good chance someone will pay him off. [ QUOTE ] I end up giving the SB (who had 89) 1.6:1 odds [/ QUOTE ] It's 1.67:1 if no one else calls, which didn't happen. With 2 other callers, he was getting 3.2:1. [ QUOTE ] ((6:1 - 1.6:1) * $36) = $158.4 that villain has to make every time he calls my raise. [/ QUOTE ] Out of 47 cards, he has 8 nut outs. That's not 6:1. That's very close to 1/6 or 5:1, 4.875:1 to be precise. If he were the only caller, he would need to get (4.875-1.667)* $36 more from you after hitting, about the size of the pot at that point. With two other callers, he only needed to get a small fraction of the size of the pot after hitting, or the chance to make a profitable turn call. You can use a few different types of accounting to try to assess a mistake. Any complete accounting system is fine, even though they don't agree on which plays are mistakes, but don't mix different accounting systems. |
#5
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I put $300 in the pot when I only expect to get ~ $26 back on average (outdrawing villains straight by making a full house on the river) [/ QUOTE ] 4 outs out of 44 cards means you fill up about 1/11 of the time, and win the $910 pot, so you expect to get back $910/11, about $82. I'm not sure where you got the $26. When you pushed, the pot wasn't $910, but you also don't put $300 in unless the SB calls. [ QUOTE ] villain WONT make $158.4 on average since he does not hit his straight enough times to make calling my flop raise profitable ... [/ QUOTE ] First, the $158 is a miscalculation. Second, he invested $36 with 8 nut outs, and netted $600. He can't be sure it will be a nice multiway pot, or that he would get paid off that much, but I think it's an easy, profitble call. There is a good chance someone will pay him off. [/ QUOTE ] If he hits the 6, not even our guy pays him off. I think that he has an easy fold. He's getting nothing like the right odds and isn't closing the action. You seem to have interpreted that as "good chance of getting a multiway pot", but this is a fairly dry board, so "someone pushes behind" or "all fold behind" is much more likely. |
#6
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PREFLOP
Why are we even playing this hand preflop? If you do decide to play it, why are you limping? FLOP After a pot sized bet and a call, do you think they are both drawing? You're not beating much here only 2-9with a ten, and with UTG leaving himself with $10 behind seems like he's begging for a call from you so he can get his last $10 in on the turn. I know this had nothing to do with the odds, but could have saved yourself the trouble here preflop or on the flop. |
#7
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[ QUOTE ]
PREFLOP Why are we even playing this hand preflop? If you do decide to play it, why are you limping? [/ QUOTE ] There's nothing wrong with limping. He certainly shouldn't raise. [ QUOTE ] FLOP After a pot sized bet and a call, do you think they are both drawing? [/ QUOTE ] Well, the second guy probably is. [ QUOTE ] You're not beating much here only 2-9with a ten, and with UTG leaving himself with $10 behind seems like he's begging for a call from you so he can get his last $10 in on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] I'd suggest he's plain retarded, actually, because he closes the action, leaving 10 behind. [ QUOTE ] I know this had nothing to do with the odds, but could have saved yourself the trouble here preflop or on the flop. [/ QUOTE ] He could definitely chuck it on the flop. Well, we know that SB had 98, but what do you think the others have? My guess: BB has two pair, T7 or 75; UTG has a set of 5s or something truly bad like KT. |
#8
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I would argue to raise if you're gonna play it since you'll be in position, I understand the limp just don't like it. With the raise you take control of the pot with position, and probably heads up.
Also that board isn't that scary, yeah a straight draw, so if you flopped two pair or a set UTG you're more likely to get 8 called than 18. so leave 10 behind and they have to call that on the turn. He's not closing the action Hero is left to act. |
#9
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] PREFLOP Why are we even playing this hand preflop? If you do decide to play it, why are you limping? [/ QUOTE ] There's nothing wrong with limping. He certainly shouldn't raise. [/ QUOTE ] Limping here is complete spew. Either raise or fold, but limping is donkish. |
#10
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Even with position, I think a fold is correct on the flop. Basically, if one person has a Ten with a higher kicker and another has 98, you're pretty much drawing dead. That's not to menton pushing the turn after everyone calls your pot-sized raise - you're up against a straight or a set virtually every time if you get called there.
Consider this: Board: Tc 7d 5h Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 03.780% 01.71% 02.07% 14 17.00 { JcTd } Hand 1: 39.146% 37.07% 02.07% 304 17.00 { KcTs } Hand 2: 28.659% 28.66% 00.00% 235 0.00 { 9d8d } Hand 3: 28.415% 28.41% 00.00% 233 0.00 { 6h4h } |
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