Is there really any value in calling here?

[Fiksdal]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $45.50
BB: $39.30
UTG: $49.25
CO: $36.05
Hero (BTN): $66.70

Reads: <font color="blue">CO is 60/35/3 predicatable spewtard.

BB doesn't like raising, 47/7/2.7 over only 17 hands though.</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 (5 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $1.75</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $6.50</font>, SB folds, <font color="red">BB raises to $11.25</font>, CO folds, Hero calls $4.75

What is the point of calling here? We can't continue on any flops without a 9 IMO, and I'd also be kinda scared of a A9x flop to be honest.

[monkeymaps]

17 hands is such a small sample size but I mean AK has to be in his 4betting range to make it anything other than silly to continue on a board that does not contain a 9 IMO.

People dont 4 bet AK much IMO so yeah flop needs a nine.
if flop is A9 i prob stack off

[Fiksdal]

Is calling for set value here +EV?

[CmnDwnWrkn]

[ QUOTE ]
Is calling for set value here +EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

You are 8:1 to hit your set on the flop, correct? That means out of nine times, you will hit your set once if you call.

1 time you will hit your set
8 times you won't

Those 8 times, you lose 4.75 each time for a total of $38.

That means that on the ninth time, you need to make $38 to break even.

Assuming that you have the best hand if you flop a set:

There is already 19.50 in the pot, so you are guaranteed that much. Then you need to make about 20 more dollars, which is about 2/3 of the opponent's remaining stack.

So you need to stack your opponent 2/3 of the time that you hit your set.

This is oversimplifying things, but you need to stack your opponent most of the time that you hit your set.

I guess it depends on the player and the hand you put him on. Seems like a borderline call

[robinmbuk]

[ QUOTE ]
Is calling for set value here +EV?

[/ QUOTE ] No villian's stack's a bit small for that. If you both had $100 then yes.

[skiller3]

It's real borderline. Call for metagame purposes.

[Fiksdal]

Guys, remember that we don't gain villains entire stack every time we flop a set. We gain 90% equity on it. And who knows, maybe some portion of the time villain has AK or misclicked with something random and we don't stack him when we hit. Or villain has QQ and the flop comes K9x or A9x and he somehow gets away. Get my drift?

[BackdoorQuads]

Anyone just call the CO raise?

[DaycareInferno]

villain doesn't have enough money left behind to call for set value. i've seen some pretty extensive writeups on this subject here on 2+2, and i don't think any of them would have recommended this.

[cubase]

[ QUOTE ]
Is calling for set value here +EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

There is $19.75 in the pot. Your opponent has has $27.55 left. So you are calling $4.75 to win 47.30.

You will miss 89% of the time. So 89 times you lose $4.75 for $422.75.

You will hit 11% of the time, but still lose occasionally to a bigger set or some other odd suckout. 11 * 47.30 = $520.00 - the times you lose. When you lose, you lose your stack. Looks coin-flippish/neutral EV.

Example flops and your equity...

Board: Ac 9d 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 78.716% 78.72% 00.00% 49095 0.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 21.284% 21.28% 00.00% 13275 0.00 { JJ+ }


Board: 2d 7c 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 91.010% 91.01% 00.00% 64872 0.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 08.990% 08.99% 00.00% 6408 0.00 { JJ+ }


Board: Ac Kc 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.965% 60.97% 00.00% 32592 0.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 39.035% 39.03% 00.00% 20868 0.00 { JJ+ }


I am at work so I don't have time for any more math here, but it looks so close, I'd probably just fold and wait for a better spot. I don't like flipping.

I'd rather outplay the BB by stealing his loose calls by c-betting flops and by the fact that his raises turn his cards face up allowing you to play optimally against him (so far, given his small sample size). You will do better to set mine when he raises pre-flop and you just call with your PP (and maybe an additional caller or two).

If he's already played half his hands I'm guessing you are going to see more of it and he's going to be giving away his dough and going too far when he does finally get around to raising.

Disclaimer: Math probably not perfect but reasonable.