Time to get out of STOCK MARKET

[Fishhead24]

The crumbling that could occur in the next 6 months is upon us. The dog days of summer are here.

OIL is soon going to be $100 a barrel.........as it could top $80 today!

The housing market is in a world of hurt, more so than even was thought, but not surprising to this observer.

The next 6 months are going to be a wooly ride on Wall Street..........be careful batinvestors.

-FH-

[Fishhead24]

OMG!

D.R. Horton Inc, the No. 2 homebuilder by revenues, reported its first quarterly loss as a public company Thursday.

For the fiscal third quarter ended June 30, D.R. Horton (Charts, Fortune 500) posted a loss of $823.8 million, or $2.62 per share, versus a profit of $292.8 million, or 93 cents, in the year-earlier quarter.

WOW, a profit of 293 million to a loss of 824 million, ........AND YOU ALL THOUGHT NO LIMIT HOLDEM WAS UP AND DOWN.

[Cubswin]

There is a place for posting this sort of drivel. It's called the Yahoo Finance message board.

[Fishhead24]

[ QUOTE ]
There is a place for posting this sort of drivel. It's called the Yahoo Finance message board.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not drivel.

This is a very, very serious time for those investors that are in the stock market.

Do you think EVERYBODY that invests in the stock market is a winner???

There are many that are not in the market for the very longterm........many!

In fact, have read many posters on this forum that are using the market as a place to "store" their BR for a short time to get the best returns. In my opinion, this is certainly not the time to be doing this, if ever.

For the next 1-12 months, a savings account returning 5-6% would seem a much better option to take.

The market at this time is EXTREMELY RISKY..........and of course this includes INDEX FUNDS.

If one is going to invest monthly or quarterly over the course of 5+ years, than the stock market is a great place to invest...........but for shortterm investors, this is not the time to be playing games.

Some commonsense makes this obvious......

1. OIL
2. HOUSING
3. TERROR THREAT

[T50_Omaha8]

[ QUOTE ]
Some commonsense makes this obvious......

[/ QUOTE ]Then why not put your money where your mouth is and do some short selling? You'd be able to buy a chunk of Iowa farmland with the cash, too.

[Fishhead24]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Some commonsense makes this obvious......

[/ QUOTE ]Then why not put your money where your mouth is and do some short selling? You'd be able to buy a chunk of Iowa farmland with the cash, too.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is PRECISELY what I did in the year 2000...........

[Fishhead24]

I have a few friends that are unloading their 401k's and also cashing in the stocks they own to PAY THEIR MORTGAGES!

This housing market is in shambles ladies and gentlemen.

[spider]

[ QUOTE ]
The crumbling that could occur in the next 6 months is upon us. The dog days of summer are here.

OIL is soon going to be $100 a barrel.........as it could top $80 today!

The housing market is in a world of hurt, more so than even was thought, but not surprising to this observer.

The next 6 months are going to be a wooly ride on Wall Street..........be careful batinvestors.

[/ QUOTE ]

As terrible as this thread is, I sort of agree and have reduced my stock allocation from around 55% to 40% (i.e. reduced by 15 percentage points). I don't know what "crumbling" means, but if you look at the PE of all the major indices, a drop of 10% (maybe even 20%) would still leave the market at reasonably high valuations. So, I think a 10% to 15% drop in the next 3 months would certainly not be that shocking considering the current market sentiment.

As far as oil, I have no idea if oil will be $100 in the near term but I wouldn't even see that as a big deal. Some of that increase is related to the weak dollar (i.e. increase in oil price is relatively milder in currencies that have strengthed). We've seen in the U.S. that whatever the effect of $3 gas vs $2 gas is pretty minor for the overall economy. $80 to $100 per barrel of oil is only 25%, I don't think it would have much effect overall.

As far as housing... well, it sucks and will continue to suck the more you are exposed to housing. But we still don't know how much it will affect the economy. It definitely is reducing growth but so far it hasn't hurt that much (and somehow it hasn't affected employment which no one seems able to explain).

[The once and future king]

If I was someone considering maintaining a position in stocks I would sell now and then move my position forward, not sure how far yet, that is the trick after all.