50NL 3bet OOP PF w/ AQo Do I c-bet?

[dimeetrees]

villain is 29/15/1.17 w/ a Attempt to steal % is 24 over 117 hands.

I figure AQo is ahead of opponents range....

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

UTG ($106.40)
MP ($42.70)
CO ($14)
Button ($50.15)
Hero ($50)
BB ($72.70)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $1.75</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $6</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $4.25.

Flop: ($12.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero ???

[SirFelixCat]

I'm firing $9.50-$10.50 and villain folds [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]]

If called, we shut it down unless we catch an A and if raised, we muck.

Thoughts?

[sightless]

cbet

[tarheeljks]

why wouldn't you

[IronOsprey]

You can't expect this flop to have helped him. If you don't cbet you may as well open fold.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm firing $9.50-$10.50 and villain folds [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]]

If called, we shut it down unless we catch an A and if raised, we muck.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree....except $8 - $8.75 sounds good enough to me.

[CmnDwnWrkn]

Think about it like this -

Assuming you are c-betting 3/4 of the pot, the c-bet has to work (i.e. make the opponent fold) 3 out of 7 times to break even.

Ex: $10 pot, c-bet $7.50

Lose 4 times: lose 4 x 7.50 = $30
Win 3 times: win 3 x 10 = $30


That means for this to be profitable, a c-bet has to make the opponent fold at least half of the time. If you think he is folding 50% or more of the time, then by all means go ahead and c-bet. I don't think he is, though.

[infinite_loop]

You need to lead this every time. When you 3-bet from the blinds you have to follow through every time.

[KEW]

C-bet...

Something to look/think about..Villain's VP$IP is higher then his ATT to Steal %..I do not know if I have ever noticed this before...This villain is unlikely to be stealing with a very wide range I would normally give a 29/15 player...I still think AQ is far ahead of his range...BUT maybe not his 3 bet calling range...

[infinite_loop]

Sometimes I will even check-raise boards like this against the right opponent. But with that kind of sample there's really no way you can peg the villain as that kind of player. And check/folding is just horrible.