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#1
07-16-2007, 08:41 PM
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guessing cards
Interesting little scenario happened to me today while playing heads up agaisnt my cousin today in holdem. Very first, I look at my cards, and before any action has taken place announce he has jack 4. At the end of the hand he flips over jack,4. Very next hand, I look at my cards and say he has King, 6 and he immediately turns over king six in disbelief that I guessed it right two in a row.
So basically what are the odds of someone guessions the other person's hand two times in a row. The suit is not considered and the only information is the two cards I hold in each of the two guesses. Thank you 
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#3
07-17-2007, 09:08 AM
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Re: guessing cards
There are 169 two-card combinations ignoring suits. Lets also ignore the two cards you hold for simplicity's sake.
So the odds of correctly guessing a random hand two consecutive times would be 169 * 169, or 1 in 28561.
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#4
07-17-2007, 05:31 PM
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Re: guessing cards
[ QUOTE ]
There are 169 two-card combinations ignoring suits. Lets also ignore the two cards you hold for simplicity's sake. So the odds of correctly guessing a random hand two consecutive times would be 169 * 169, or 1 in 28561. [/ QUOTE ] Actually, pairs are less likely, so two consecutive correct guesses are a bit more likely than that... Assuming that that you guess cards that are not in your holding and don't guess a pair the chance is 16 in 50 choose 2 guessing two back to back works out to 256 in 1500625, roughly 1 in 5882.
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#6
07-18-2007, 09:47 AM
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Re: guessing cards
[ QUOTE ]
I understand that pairs are less likely but how would you know not to guess a pair? I don't think you can count them out here. [/ QUOTE ] You can't, but the OP is guessing non-pair hands, and if one were to guess for optimal likelihood one would guess cards that are not in the holding.
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