AKs - a confusing spot on flop

[shortline99]

Villain is a lovely 51/4/0.5. How should I be best responding to this flop donk?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($187.25)
Hero ($171.60)
SB ($130.15)
BB ($39)
UTG ($100.60)
MP ($100)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $3.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $12</font>, SB calls $11.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $8.50.

Flop: ($37) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $10</font>, CO folds, Hero ???


If I simply call, what is my plan on a turn of Ace or King? A blank turn?

[modnareno]

Raising the flop (planning on checking it down) is awesome if he has air or a draw and won't try to bluff you anymore (these guys usually don't). But this plan kind of sucks if he has a real hand as we stick in like $40 drawing slim, and might not even see any cards if he shoves the flop.

Calling doesn't seem too bad. He might give us a free card or bet small again or who knows its only $10. It basically tells him you have AK though (he probably already thinks you have it anyway) and he might price you out on the turn

Hrm okay if i call the flop and turn a A or a K I would call the turn ($40 or less) and fold the river. I doubt he would triple barrel a JT3 K 2 or JT3 A 3 board without having AK beat.

On a blank turn i would probably call up to $25ish.

I would never bet if checked to on the turn. I would bet smallish ($30-40?) if the turn bricked and got checked through and i rivered a pair.

[Flixxx]

those preflop coldcalls usually mean medium pps. also the fact hes betting into two people means to me we are behind, either to a set or QQ, maybe KK (or less probably AA). I think I would call here to catch a Q or see how he reacts when an A or a K drops. when he leads out strong on an A/K turn, I would consider folding. If he continues weakishly I would call him down.

[shortline99]

[ QUOTE ]
those preflop coldcalls usually mean medium pps. also the fact hes betting into two people means to me we are behind, either to a set or QQ, maybe KK (or less probably AA). I think I would call here to catch a Q or see how he reacts when an A or a K drops. when he leads out strong on an A/K turn, I would consider folding. If he continues weakishly I would call him down.

[/ QUOTE ]
this guy is not exactly brilliant. see:

[ QUOTE ]
51/4/0.5

[/ QUOTE ]

i doubt we are up against a set here.

[modnareno]

Er nevermind what i wrote, if this guy is 51/4 and raise/called preflop I think TT and JJ is a HUGE part of his range. Just try to make a straight cheap, and fold the river even if you make a pair.

[Flixxx]

okay, I guess I have to adjust his pf range then [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

still I wouldnt raise this type betting into two as you wouldnt even get him off a J. He lets you draw cheaply and you have position. see the turn with him and decide on his action then.

[Nick Royale]

I peel the flop. Folding isn't really an option since we have about 8 outs on average, 4 of them being to the nuts. Most often fold the turn UI.

[Mike MacIntosh]

51/4/0.5 raising PF, calling a 3bet OOP, and then leading a flop into 2 players is a little alarming, I mean his post-flop aggression is 0.5. How reliable are these stats? Have you seen him show down any hands where he has raised PF or called 3bets?

Assuming these stats are accurate I would fold the flop.

The guy is a loose passive calling station, and is leading into 2 players on the flop! This line from this player indicates a very strong hand. We may have 10 outs but how many of them are clean/good if we hit. We could potentially lose a lot of money if an A or K hits on the turn. The only card we will love to see on the turn is a Q, and we are not getting the odds to chase a 4 outer.

With a different read on villain, I insta-call his small flop bet and re-evaluate on the turn.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
51/4/0.5 raising PF, calling a 3bet OOP, and then leading a flop into 2 players is a little alarming, I mean his post-flop aggression is 0.5. How reliable are these stats? Have you seen him show down any hands where he has raised PF or called 3bets?

Assuming these stats are accurate I would fold the flop.

The guy is a loose passive calling station, and is leading into 2 players on the flop! This line from this player indicates a very strong hand. We may have 10 outs but how many of them are clean/good if we hit. We could potentially lose a lot of money if an A or K hits on the turn. The only card we will love to see on the turn is a Q, and we are not getting the odds to chase a 4 outer.

With a different read on villain, I insta-call his small flop bet and re-evaluate on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
This small bet doesn't mean monster. And we're getting 5:1 with 4 outs to the nuts and $110 behind in a $60 pot vs a donk. Do the math, implied odds if we hit a Q and a chance of an A or K being good (without us going beserk if we hit one) makes this call a no brainer.

[modnareno]

[ QUOTE ]
The guy is a loose passive calling station, and is leading into 2 players on the flop! This line from this player indicates a very strong hand. We may have 10 outs but how many of them are clean/good if we hit. We could potentially lose a lot of money if an A or K hits on the turn. The only card we will love to see on the turn is a Q, and we are not getting the odds to chase a 4 outer.


[/ QUOTE ]

Eh I always says "well if he has a set, then i have the implied odds for the gutshot!" and then i say "and if he doesnt have a set, i have the immediate odds for a pair!". Am i gambling too much thinking about it like this?