Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Lord_Strife · #1 07-12-2007, 08:18 PM

A good friend of mine is a big rays fan and I was talking about how they might be the worst team in professional sports. We have a prop bet brewing about the odds that the Devil Rays win the World Series title in the next 10 years. If you were to make this bet, where would you set the line at and which side would you take?

wheatrich · #2 07-12-2007, 08:42 PM

why on earth would you make a bet that won't end up finalizing in ten years? There's a good chance you'd forget about it.

Lord_Strife · #3 07-12-2007, 08:53 PM

Nah, not us... don't worry about the bet, i'm interested in odds

ImStillBen · #4 07-12-2007, 09:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
A good friend of mine is a big rays fan and I was talking about how they might be the worst team in professional sports. We have a prop bet brewing about the odds that the Devil Rays win the World Series title in the next 10 years. If you were to make this bet, where would you set the line at and which side would you take?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would set the Yes at +9999999999 and then bet the Yes.

craig · #5 07-12-2007, 09:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you were to make this bet, where would you set the line at and which side would you take?

[/ QUOTE ]

+500000000000000 on NO and bet it all [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] .

seriously though, as far as the division is concerned (I cannot even think about TB winning the WS) if NYY and BOS continue to put the same type of teams out there that they did at the beginning of the season (or attempted to) then I cannot imagine that one of these two teams doesn't win the division 65-70% of the time. It could possibly be higher. That would leave 30% for the other 3 teams, with Toronto maybe having 15% (and possibly more than a 5% higher than BAL) chance each year and BAL 10, TB 5% (I am really guessing on all of these numbers). That would give TB about a 40% chance to win the division in the next 10 years.

craig

New001 · #6 07-12-2007, 09:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you were to make this bet, where would you set the line at and which side would you take?

[/ QUOTE ]

+500000000000000 on NO and bet it all [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] .

seriously though, as far as the division is concerned (I cannot even think about TB winning the WS) if NYY and BOS continue to put the same type of teams out there that they did at the beginning of the season (or attempted to) then I cannot imagine that one of these two teams doesn't win the division 65-70% of the time. It could possibly be higher. That would leave 30% for the other 3 teams, with Toronto maybe having 15% (and possibly more than a 5% higher than BAL) chance each year and BAL 10, TB 5% (I am really guessing on all of these numbers). That would give TB about a 40% chance to win the division in the next 10 years.

craig

[/ QUOTE ]
This sounds pretty good at least to start with. I was going to guess somewhere in the +200, +300, somewhere along those lines. It's certainly much closer to that than it would be to some ridiculous +1000 number.

hobbes9324 · #7 07-13-2007, 03:34 AM

Huh?

Tampa has a fairly nice team of young players that they have no hope in hell of hanging on to. They play in the same division with Boston and NY, who are going to spend whatever it takes to keep up with one another, and if necessary will overpay for free agents to keep them away from division rivals.

They are also in the same division with Baltimore, who can always hope Angelos has a stroke or something, which would immediatly make them ten games better, making Tampa's playoff chances worse.

If by some miracle they manage to sneak a wild card, they'll be the visitor for both playoff series against teams that will be somewhere between better and much better than them. And then they have to win the World Series.

+1000 is low.

MM MD

Thremp · #8 07-13-2007, 12:45 PM

Hobbes,

Why? Does a small market team never win the WS? baseball is a crapshoot. At a 1% chance a year. It's +1000. I don't see how you could weight it much lower with the exceptional farm system they have.

hobbes9324 · #9 07-14-2007, 02:23 AM

For a couple of reasons.

1) Having a nice farm system is useless if you can't hold on to the players. Tampa has shown no signs of wanting (or being able) to spend money. It's been pretty clearly shown that a player's prime years are from about age 26 to 31 (ignoring DH's and freaks like Roger). They have lots of talent, but it's not going to be in a Tampa uniform for more than a year or two.

2) They live in a bad neighborhood. The Yankees, Red Sox, and (admittedly poorly) Baltimore spend money like crazy. They'll eat contracts, make terrible trades in terms of short term gain vs. long term value - but it kills TB, who can't do any of those things. If they were in any other division, maybe.

But not here. Unless they get new owners with lots of cash. And if they do, they won't be the Tampa Bay Rays - they'll be the Las Vegas Gamblers, or something like that...

MM MD

rush66 · #10 07-12-2007, 09:11 PM

find a book with the current odds they are at now. Multiply by ten....this is assuming you dont believe they will improve at all, which isnt possible. Therefore, shade it in your favor slightly or heavily.