Thoughts on CityCenter Las Vegas

[raptor517]

http://www.citycenter.com/default.aspx

this is going down smack dab in the center of the strip.. and seeing how vegas isnt exactly on the decline.. buying a condo there might not be the worst investment ever.. though at 1k-1500 a square foot(so i hear).. its a bit steep. anyways, anyone have any thoughts on this? just something i was looking into seemed interesting.

[CrushinFelt]

If anything you'll probably get some long-winded supply/demand arguments in this forum. You should talk to people who actually have history in the LV area and the strip in particular. I know a lot of people in the real estate biz (from real estate agents to a director at KB Homes in L.A. to entrepreneurs in Nashville), and one common theme is that timing is everything. You should definitely talk to someone with a good deal of history in and around the strip.

As for my advice, you'll likely be paying a pretty sick amount for a place there (I don't mean "omg $1k a sf", but rather relative to what prices would have gone for even 5 years ago). One reason for this, if you pay any attention to financial news, hotels (particularly for their real estate value as well as being cash cows) are very serious buy-out targets right now. The problem is that everyone knows this and that's why you'll be paying out the ass for a condo there and I don't know if a sector gets any hotter than when Private Equity is taking a hard look at it.

I also know that when I interviewed with Harrah's, one of the questions they asked me (after their acquisition of the Barbary Coast) was to talk about my view on the possibility of turning it into condos. Without even talking about the construction aspect of it, the main point I hit on (and which they were totally in agreement with) was that with all the supply coming in (i.e. CItyCenter) this would be extremely risky because they weren't sure how large the market was.

Summary: It's not something I would do right now for speculation purposes. Private Equity has already made it loud and clear than real estate in and around hotel properties is very hot and thus I think you'd already be paying very speculative prices.

[pig4bill]

Aren't there a number of gigantic condo projects that got cancelled? Plus Vegas residential real estate in general has been tanking.

[raptor517]

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Side note: i spoke to an agent here yesterday (Bellagio) and they said the project will not be complete until 09. Given that and the market dynamics...and the fact that condo projects in Miami (an overheated market that crashed/is crashing) and other places have had to resort to auctioning off/severely discounting remaining units...i'm going to bide my time here and see how things wash out. Seems like the smart play.

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i agree with that blueman, i looked into it a bit more, and decided that it might be a much better deal to hold off and try to pick something up at discount/auction when it turns out people cant afford 1300 a square foot.

[spex x]

IMO, if you're going to use the property less than 3 months out of the year you're better off renting when you need to.