Bigtime WTF Spot 300bb deep nut trips

[MYNAMEIZGREG]

Villain here is deerchaser21. He is really, really strange. Today he got his stack from running good. He plays around 50/25 but he is really tough, in all honesty. He plays strangly, for example checking behind in a 3bet pot on the flop with KK on a a TT9 board, with a fd, but then potting Q7 turn/river when BDFD hits and when potting it with KK 2 streets becomes really thin but I'm pretty sure he doesn't know that. In my opinion here the river spade doesn't matter because I have a good read that his turn play cannot be a draw. I had a hand with him where he potted a draw and did not fire when he missed (in fact I've never seen a missed draw bluff from him) the next street after (the spot was THE SPOT to do it if he ever was gonna).

He took about one second to PSR the flop, thought for about 3 seconds on the turn, and INSTANTLY potted the river. His aggression levels are .83 pre, 1.02 flop, 2.5 turn, 2.11 river, overall 1.04.

What's your play, and does your play change on a 6o river?

Ultimate Bet - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $10/$25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $7,918.50
Hero (BB): $7,525.25
UTG: $2,751.00
MP: $3,104.00
CO: $5,943.50
BTN: $472.50

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 (6 Players)
4 folds, SB calls $15.00, <font color="red">Hero raises to $75.00</font>, SB calls $50.00

Flop: ($150) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $150.00</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $600.00</font>, Hero calls $450.00

Turn: ($1350) 2 (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $1,350.00</font>, Hero calls $1,350.00

River: ($4050) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $4,050.00</font>,

[berserk]

Seems like he can easily have 55 or a flush here. I certainly fold here as very few people can make such a big bluff, and when your hand looks pretty strong to be calling the turn he can't expect you to fold the river often. I think if the river is a non-spade 6 it's tougher, as he could be thinly potting something like 78, and as such i think i would call.

[aislephive]

If you think that he never has a draw on the turn I don't see how you can fold the river.

[degeneratum]

[ QUOTE ]
Seems like he can easily have 55 or a flush here. I certainly fold here as very few people can make such a big bluff, and when your hand looks pretty strong to be calling the turn he can't expect you to fold the river often. I think if the river is a non-spade 6 it's tougher, as he could be thinly potting something like 78, and as such i think i would call.

[/ QUOTE ]

based on preflop play he cant really have 55

[creedofhubris]

Why didn't you raise the turn?

I think that's the best way to get the money in good vs. his range.

[catcher193]

gross spot, my main argument for calling is he is so loose that hands like J5o could be in his range (where a LAG or Tag is more likely to have something like 75s or 76s) and he could show up with a total air bluff often enough.

also, I like the turn, but I might Yeti the flop smallish.

[trambopoline]

I probably call vs deerchaser because hes retarded and plays terribly

[yellowsub]

raise turn or call river, i pref call river

[MYNAMEIZGREG]

Trampo and yellowsub what are you guys putting him on?

[cero_z]

Hi Greg,

Why didn't you raise the turn? He doesn't have a draw, so he has a bluff or a made hand, and that could easily be something he can call with. He can read you for having picked up a big draw, even, and make a big call without trips. I don't see the value in waiting when there's so much in there already and some cards that could kill your action. Surely you weren't worried you were beat on the turn. River seems like a super-easy call if he rarely has a draw on the turn.