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#1
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River Bluff
a 25/11/5 over 130 hands openraises in MP, a horrible 61/8/2.2 over 90 hands coldcalls in the CO, sb drops and i call with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the BB.
Flop(6.5sb): T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] i check, MP bets, CO calls, i call. Turn(4.25bb): 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] i check, it checks through. River(4.25bb): 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] i bet... |
#2
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Re: River Bluff
My first reaction was that I hated it, until I saw how aggro the CO was. I can't imagine him checking through the turn with any pair or even a decent draw, which means that we're likely to be ahead of him. And MP can't really call your bet sandwiched in the middle with a better ace. I'm still a bit hesitant, tho, as your sample size on CO really isn't that large (enough to say he's horrible, yes, but not really enough to say he's that aggressive postflop).
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#3
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Re: River Bluff
[ QUOTE ]
I'm still a bit hesitant, tho, as your sample size on CO really isn't that large (enough to say he's horrible, yes, but not really enough to say he's that aggressive postflop). [/ QUOTE ] an earlier hand with CO: he open limps in MP somewhere, i check J5o in the BB. Flop: J78r i check, he bets, i call. Turn: 4 completing rainbow i check, he bets, i checkraise, he 3bets, i call. River: 9 i check/call. he shows K6o for KJhigh. one example of his idiocy. |
#4
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Re: River Bluff
Point taken, although actually that makes me a bit more hesitant to bet at this pot. Both because it makes his turn check thru even more suspicious (when LAGs do that it so often means a monster), and because you face the possibility of a river raise whether he's got something or not.
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#5
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Re: River Bluff
I Like it: MP will probably fold a better ace and you have CO beat a lot.
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#6
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Re: River Bluff
I like it for all the reasons everyone who has liked it like it.
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#7
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Re: River Bluff
[ QUOTE ]
Both because it makes his turn check thru even more suspicious (when LAGs do that it so often means a monster), and because you face the possibility of a river raise whether he's got something or not. [/ QUOTE ] i agree his turn check is either a monster or complete air. while my equity versus his range would be better if i checkraised, i think it is offset by the benefits of it not checking through. as far as the river raise goes, say we assume he raises it 50% with the nuts and 50% as a bluff. that's basically a zero expectation situation because i win as much as i lose so it can really be disregarded. if you disagree, what do you think we could assign as reasonable %'s to his bluffing frequency? it's obviously too high. |
#8
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Re: River Bluff
[ QUOTE ]
as far as the river raise goes, say we assume he raises it 50% with the nuts and 50% as a bluff. that's basically a zero expectation situation because i win as much as i lose so it can really be disregarded. if you disagree, what do you think we could assign as reasonable %'s to his bluffing frequency? it's obviously too high. [/ QUOTE ] I think that 50% is too high for any player other than a total maniac, but we can't really quantify a value based on just a few hands anyway. My concerns are that we have to figure he is never folding a better hand when we bet, and is raising with a worse or better hand a pretty fair amount of the time. Put together, that makes this a potentially expensive stab at a small pot. I definitely see where you're coming from with the move & it's just about guaranteed to get MP out of the hand. But with a guy like that at the table, I'd rather just hold off and wait for a better opportunity. Though in fairness if he calls or raises and beats your ace high on this hand, you'll probably get even more action out of him in the future. |
#9
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Re: River Bluff
when an MP with AF of 5 checks the turn, I agree he's given up on the hand, but what worse hands is this fishy cutoff folding? is he passive postflop as well as pre; will he call with any piece, or will he drop his 2, 3 or 4 the necessary 1/5 of the time? I think when this "bluff" succeeds you have the best hand a lot.
also james, were you planning to c/r turn? |
#10
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Re: River Bluff
[ QUOTE ]
also james, were you planning to c/r turn? [/ QUOTE ] if CO bet i would have considered it, but given the pot size i wasn't too excited about putting in 2 big bets at that point. |
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