set vs. flush that hit on river... possible to lay it down?18k gtd

The_Bao · #1 06-30-2007, 09:35 PM

hand from the 27.50 18k GTD on stars.

don’t remember exact stats on villain but I had seen him chase before. I remember he had played about 50% of his hands. can I fold this after investing so many chips?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

Button (t3965)
SB (t4265)
BB (t3295)
UTG (t5215)
UTG+1 (t3055)
MP1 (t4220)
Hero (t2445)
MP3 (t1355)
CO (t4845)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls t30, 2 folds, Hero raises to t120, 2 folds, Button calls t120, 2 folds, UTG calls t90.

Flop: (t405) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets t375, Button calls t375, UTG folds.

Turn: (t1155) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t800, Button calls t800.

River: (t2755) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t2670 (All-In), Hero wonders wtf to do???

Dunkman · #2 06-30-2007, 10:52 PM

no way I fold...you're getting over 3.5:1

hamnegger · #3 06-30-2007, 11:09 PM

calllllllllllll

raju · #4 07-01-2007, 04:21 AM

If you suspect he`ll chase for any price the 800 turn bet is no good.
with 2 hearts on the flop you`ve gotta shove that turn.

Have you seen him bluff at all? Because your flop bet says you prolly dont have the flush and will fold if a heart hits.
It also tells villian that his none flush hand is prolly good if its 2 pair or smaller set. Or, worse for you, KT for a staight.
As played im gonna call and kick my self for not shoving the turn

The_Bao · #5 07-01-2007, 04:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you suspect he`ll chase for any price the 800 turn bet is no good.
with 2 hearts on the flop you`ve gotta shove that turn.

Have you seen him bluff at all? Because your flop bet says you prolly dont have the flush and will fold if a heart hits.
It also tells villian that his none flush hand is prolly good if its 2 pair or smaller set. Or, worse for you, KT for a staight.
As played im gonna call and kick my self for not shoving the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

i didn't know if he'd chase for any price. surely if i knew he would, i would shove that turn all day, as that would give him the worst odds to call for his flush (even if he hit it it would be ok, as i would be making the correct play in charging for his draw and he would be making the incorrect play by paying the wrong odds for it). but of course, i don't KNOW he'll chase for any price. i want to encourage action, and i WANT him to have a flush draw here. however, i want to do the most +ev play, that is, make a bet that will give him incorrect odds to call for his flush. if he hits it, so be it. but in the long run, this is +ev for me. against your average opponent, overshoving 2k into a 1k pot when all they have is a FD won't often get called.

and what do yo mean by my flop bet says i probably don't have the flush or will fold if a heart hits? no one has a flush on the flop... and how does it say that villain's non flush hand is probably good?

Larude · #6 07-01-2007, 05:36 AM

If he has been chasing this before surely there is a case to be considered for folding. I think the odds you offered him are fair enough, if you can let hem pay for more that is ofcourse always better. Please dont shove the turn, that is bad advice, like you say you want him to stick around with bad odds. Then if the flush falls thats poker, you did nothing wrong.

If villain is bluffing I cant imagine see him callbluff twice pure on the flushdraw, with nothing so he will have had some other outs as well, mostly a straightdraw, gutshotstraight or middlepair. In this case that would be something like 89 or JT-J9 (these of hearts got there), but IMHO that are the only hands, that merit a semicallbluff. KT got there, T9 got there a Flushdraw got there. By the way he may have had the odds for calling if he had something like JT or J9 of hearts. But the pull out this semicallbluff it certainly has to be a decent player, mostly I go with the simple explanation that he just got it.

Although the offered odds are very nice it still means he has to be bluffing in this spot for about 22% of the time, that is a lot for so few callbluffingopportunities. I think he is just valuebetting I mean you have 1100 left what could should he have done else...

raju · #7 07-01-2007, 04:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
and what do yo mean by my flop bet says i probably don't have the flush DRAW or will fold if a heart hits?

[/ QUOTE ]

The flop bet obv denies villian the odds he needs for a FD/str8 draw but if he has any kind of hand (2 pair,AJ, OESD) he could well see those remaining hearts as good cards for him to bluff at. If you shove the turn he cant do that. Its kind of standard denying the odds like that and MOST of the time it means the bettor doesnt want to see anymore hearts which is why its a good spot for a bluff

I understand what your saying about wanting him in the hand at the wrong price etc. But i`d rather take the money now on the turn. Its early, the pot is big relative to the blinds and the shove is designed to end it not get a call.

If he does call, then everything Ego said,
Theres only T9 that bothers you on the turn and you still got outs.

IMO shoving turn is better than shoving or calling the river

As played i dont think you can fold. you`re beat as often as you`ve won here i think.

Dunkman · #8 07-01-2007, 04:42 PM

This can be a set, AJ, hell even A6 if he's really bad (or just be bluffing the scare card.) Also, I think shoving the turn is pretty awful. Your bet on the turn isn't giving him anything close to odds to draw to a flush (remember, 8h and Jh are not outs...he's worse than 5:1 to make it and is getting a price of less than 4:1 to call the turn bet assuming you stack off on the river if he makes his flush.) Why is shoving preferable then? I'm sorry, but you don't want to make him fold the flush draw, you want him to pay way too much to draw to it. Aside from that, there's also hands that are drawing dead at this point that would call a turn bet but not a shove, so I think it's pretty clearly a bad play here. This hand was played well, as long as you called the river.

edit: answering questions from OP...1) no, you can't fold on the river. You're probably going to lose most of the time, but the chances of slowplayed set/2 pair/misguided bluff/other stupid crap is more than enough to cover the enormous odds you have. 2) Shoving the turn is really bad.

one more edit: obviously shoving the turn is good if he will call with all these hands, but I would think even the worst villain would fold a flush draw to a 2x pot overbet on the turn.

The_Bao · #9 07-01-2007, 05:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]

one more edit: obviously shoving the turn is good if he will call with all these hands, but I would think even the worst villain would fold a flush draw to a 2x pot overbet on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

my thoughts exactly. love the discussion, very helpful.

BUMP

miami32 · #10 07-01-2007, 06:09 AM

Hero folds. He has a flush. I like shoving the turn.