PS $50 - I hate this spot so much

[Mackerel]

CO has been sitting out several rounds, and will be all-in in the BB next hand. SB has been abusing the bubble, pushing at least 4 out of 5 hands for a while now. Button and I have just been meekly folding, waiting for CO to blind out. Then this hand comes up.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t95)
Button (t710)
SB (t10045)
Hero (t2650)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to t9000</font>

Hero...........

Fold to guarantee the money, or go for the win?

[vm1124]

this is a fold.

[MagicKK]

I'd fold. You're pretty much guaranteed 2nd unless the Button doubles up a couple of times. It's a tough one, but folding seems like the most profitable play here.

[holy32]

Yes, fold.

If Button had one bb less AA would be a fold here.

[Kevin8423]

I don't know that this is a fold and I certainly wouldn't be folding AA here. Doubling up to around 5000 will have a significant boost to the chances of taking first and you win such a high % against ATC that it might be profitable enough to jusitify it for the times you lose against the garbage and occasional Ax hand he is shoving. With AA you win even more often so I think its even tougher to fold.

[Mackerel]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know that this is a fold and I certainly wouldn't be folding AA here. Doubling up to around 5000 will have a significant boost to the chances of taking first and you win such a high % against ATC that it might be profitable enough to jusitify it for the times you lose against the garbage and occasional Ax hand he is shoving. With AA you win even more often so I think its even tougher to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is almost exactly what was going through my mind at the time.

[ger664]

KK is a fold here do the math. We know villians range 4 out of 5 hands thats 80%. FWIW AA is always a call.

[flopton]

this isn't one of those spots where AA is a fold based on icm? id like to know some of the math on that if you will show it. you have 31.46 equity right now and if you double up you have 36.71. so to be risking 31 to make 5 you need an 86% chance to win against the range? what is the chance aces will win against any 2 cards?

[AMT]

my grunch is that, since hes obviously on any two this is a reasonable fold with KK. im calling with AA.