River: c/r or b/r ?

[HoneyBadger]

Villain is quite solid, a tad passive (2.0), but overall a good player (over 5k hands)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls.

I don't cap here because I'm OOP; villain is good; knows I am; hence, I don't like JJ that much.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls.

Overpair, standard c/r in my book. I c/r draws here, so I must balance my range by c/r-ing overpairs

Turn: (5.75 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero calls.

I must bet here. Ok, he went for a call c/r, raise turn line. He knows I'll bet the turn no matter what after the c/r.So he probably either has AK here he wants to take to a free showdown, or a better overpair; the latter being more likely, so I go into call-down mode.

River: (9.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Jackpot, I have him beat. How to extract the most? I'm almost 100% certain he will bet if I check and call my raise; however, would he raise me if I bet out? Will he see this as some weird wa/wb line and raise QQ+? Maybe even AK as a bluff? Or is a c/r better, knowing he will bet out?

[BigBadBabar]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm almost 100% certain he will bet if I check

[/ QUOTE ]

then check.

[HoneyBadger]

c/r is 2 bets, b/r is 3...

[Hyperrrprank]

There's a number missing here that's needed to answer the question... What's your estimate on the percentage of the time that he'll raise you if you bet out? That lets you run an expectation calculation. If he'll raise 50% of the time and call 50% of the time, then you win 1.5BB on average by betting out (3BB won 50% of the time, 1BB won 50% of the time, -0BB lost since you're sure you have a lock). That means checkraising is better in that case since you will always win 2BB.

If you can be sure that he'll raise you say 75% of the time, it becomes profitable in the long run to bet out since you're expectation has become 3(75)+1(25)/100 or 2.5BB on average.

You can't normally have that exact a percentage on someone, but it helps if you can answer the simplified version... "Will he raise instead of flatcall more than half the time?" If yes, bet. If no, checkraise.

[StrictlyStrategy]

The whole line is good. Getting raised on this turn sucks as he has you beat like 90% of the time.

River c/r is way better, as your whole line is "overpair" and betting now is "haha! set!"

[Xhad]

I don't think it matters much because villain is acting like he flopped a set or straight and you're probably going to 3-4 bets no matter what. I would check for game balancing reasons.

[ProfessorBen]

SEXY PLZ.

Even if villain puts you on something like AJ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] initially and raises, he's definitely folding to a 3-bet. 88/99 goes to captown either way.

[BigBadBabar]

RESPONDING TO HONEYBADGER BECAUSE I USE QUICK REPLY AND XHAD GOT A LITTLE EMOTIONAL, &lt;3

honey, you say the guy is a tad passive, if he has aa-qq and you donk this river, is he honestly raising?

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think it matters much because villain is acting like he flopped a set or straight and you're probably going to 3-4 bets no matter what. I would check for game balancing reasons.

[/ QUOTE ]

How are people giving him straights and AK? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] He probably has AA-QQ but maybe a flopped set. Worst case is that he has TT and checks behind but he still might bet it. This is a clear c/r and cap if he re-pops it.

[James.]

a double donk on the big streets would look so goofy.

it makes me sort of like it.

if he has AK or an underpocketpair, he may bluff a portion of the time, but he's most likely raising the turn for a free showdown(as you alluded to). in that case he's checking the river most all of the time. a donk into a hand like AK or 77 on that board will result in a call most all of the time given the pot size and his likely image of you. so the best way to get at least one bet in on the river versus AK/underpairs is usually donk.

the rest of the time, he's probably over a 2-1 favorite to have a big pocket pair(varies exactly on what you put his range at, but close enough). do you really think he's not raising QQ-AA most all of the time when you pull the 'ole double donk out of the bag of tricks? hell yes he's raising. and he's not folding those hands to a 3bet, either(if he is, he could very well consider folding to a c/r a significant nonzero portion of the time also). i would guess he's raising an overpair a minimum of 65-70% of the time on the river.

i really think b/3b is likely better versus this guy and his range. the only drawback(in my mind) is the oddity of the line. *sometimes* your line will look wierd and confuse him into calling. this works in your favor when he has a weak hand and he didn't want to put a 3rd big bet in on 5th street after popping the turn. it can work against you if he gets puzzled and makes a call because he's not sure where he's at. thing is, 2.0 postflop AF isn't what i would qualify as "passive". he should understand what range of your UTG raising hands he's ahead of and be raising alot of those hands for value. the wider your UTG raising range, the more this is true. makes me lean towards a ba-donk-a-donk bet.