25nl a,q against nit

[Klompy]

Villain in this hand was 10/3/1.2 over 5,000 hands. What can he possibly have here? I felt super nitty after folding the turn, but can't put him on a hand here at all and when nits bet it usually means something. 7,7? a,k?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

Hero (SB): $28.60
BB: $10.00
UTG: $32.85
UTG+1: $32.35
MP1: $26.30
MP2: $26.30
MP3: $23.90
CO: $5.00
BTN: $45.75

CO posts $0.25
Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (9 Players)
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, MP3 calls $0.25, CO checks, BTN calls $0.25, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.10</font>, BB folds, MP1 calls $1.85, 4 folds

Flop: ($5.45) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3.50</font>, MP1 calls $3.50

Turn: ($12.45) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP1 bets $7.75</font>, Hero folds
Uncalled bet of $7.75 returned to MP1

Pot Size: $12.45 ($0.60 Rake)

[Steelerman]

With all those limpers I'd probably raise to $2.50 pf since you're going to be OOP but you got the job done so whatever.

I think you're either looking at the same hand or 77. It's hard to imagine even a pfr of 3 open limping AK in MP. I'd bet closer to $4 on the flop and lead out again on the turn. If you get raised on the turn you know you're beat. If called, I'd just c/c a reasonable river bet.

As played, I guess the fold is fine. I don't think you give up much value playing conservatively against a nit like this. It's hard to just give somebody credit for quads but you just don't beat anything here.

[effang]

[ QUOTE ]
With all those limpers I'd probably raise to $2.50 pf since you're going to be OOP but you got the job done so whatever.

I think you're either looking at the same hand or 77. It's hard to imagine even a pfr of 3 open limping AK in MP. I'd bet closer to $4 on the flop and lead out again on the turn. If you get raised on the turn you know you're beat. If called, I'd just c/c a reasonable river bet.

As played, I guess the fold is fine. I don't think you give up much value playing conservatively against a nit like this. It's hard to just give somebody credit for quads but you just don't beat anything here.

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i agree, i don't think you lose any EV folding here, but your line is awfully weak. Weak flop bet, c/f turn. He could be betting ANY ace here, assuming you have TTJJQQ.

[Klompy]

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He could be betting ANY ace here, assuming you have TTJJQQ

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But what ace does he limp/call a fairly large raise with here? I really doubt he limps a,j or worse from mp1. I really just feel like best case scenario is I'm splitting with a,q here or do you disagree?

I guess the flop bet could be a little stronger, but the flop isn't very draw heavy. TBH I think I like a flop check more then I like betting more though. This is almost always a wa/wb situation against a guy like this.

[Dennisa]

I think here is a case where you should of bet just a bit more on that flop, you want to take this one down right there. Nits will open limp ak from middle position, and I would guess greater thant 50% of the time that is what you see. You may occasionally see aq for the time and pocket 7's for quads. Fold is good.

[Steelerman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He could be betting ANY ace here, assuming you have TTJJQQ

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But what ace does he limp/call a fairly large raise with here? I really doubt he limps a,j or worse from mp1. I really just feel like best case scenario is I'm splitting with a,q here or do you disagree?

I guess the flop bet could be a little stronger, but the flop isn't very draw heavy. TBH I think I like a flop check more then I like betting more though. This is almost always a wa/wb situation against a guy like this.

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Klomp,

A flop check would be pretty bad here. You've just got to lead at it strong and see how interested he is in the pot.

[Klompy]

steelerman,

I'm curious what the difference between betting 2/3 of the pot here like I did are to betting 3/4 or full pot? I agree against a looser caller it would be a better idea as we could get called by worse aces, or a gutshot or something but do you really think this guy floats because I bet 2/3 instead of more?

I could be wrong about this, but I feel like this guy is prob playing hit or miss, and that betting more is just spewing to him everytime he hits. I'm open to explanations to why this is wrong though.