NL25 - How to play 2nd pair + nut flush draw?

[rdrr]

Villian (SB) is 22.5/8/0.9 over 160 hands, no further reads.
What's your preferred play here?

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 8 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $32.40
Hero (BB): $25.00
UTG: $14.95
UTG+1: $33.65
MP1: $23.10
MP2: $24.15
CO: $20.75
BTN: $17.10

Preflop: Hero is dealt 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (8 Players)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $0.25, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $0.25, 2 folds, SB calls $0.15, Hero checks

Flop: ($1) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $0.75</font>, UTG+1 calls $0.75, MP2 calls $0.75, <font color="red">SB raises to $3.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero ???</font>

[bottomset]

i'd just call

[RyanCMU]

Call

[CazicT]

It seems as though he has a set of 2's or A2.

I wouldn't feel good if I hit my 9 or even if I hit a king and so basically all we have is the FD.

I don't really know that we are getting the proper odds to call with a FD, I tend to think no.

Seems very weak, but i'm thinking fold?


This assesment is based largely on the PT statistics. If you don't trust them then I can see coming to a different conclusion.

[KurtSF]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't really know that we are getting the proper odds to call with a FD, I tend to think no.

[/ QUOTE ]

We need to call $2.25 into a $6.25 pot, so our immediate pot odds are not good enough to call.

The key is the two players behind us. If one of them comes along we called $2.25 in a $8.50 pot, which is borderline. If they both do we obviously have odds to call. Plus any IO since we do have a nut draw. And if the pot is re-popped, that is, if we have to call more than the $2.25, then the pot will also be 3-way, where we will be at an equity edge.

I like a call.

[bottomset]

9out outs with 80+bbs left to bet

hahahah at even thinking about folding

[rdrr]

I'm not trying to sound defensive, I just want to learn, but can somebody explain why raising here would be dead-wrong?

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not trying to sound defensive, I just want to learn, but can somebody explain why raising here would be dead-wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

because its likely you are a moderate underdog and have little fold equity

the wider sb's range get the better a reraise gets as it does 2things, makes it more likely you will get him to fold, and it also makes it more likely that your 2pair trip outs are good

[Landlord79]

I've pushed in this spot before, that will get rid of the 2 callers behind, which I wouldn't want to do. We've got 2nd pair and a flush draw! I'm not folding this ever in this spot!
I vote for a call to keep the other 2 donks in the hand to increase our odds of winning a big pot w/ the nutz on later streets. Maybe you'll get a weaker FD to tag along and YES, I do think our 9 is goot here!

[KurtSF]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not trying to sound defensive, I just want to learn, but can somebody explain why raising here would be dead-wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

It depends on your opponents.

You've got a huge nut draw, and potentially as many as 5 additional outs beyond that. With a check-raise and a 3-bet you're almost certainly going to fold out the other two players and end up HU against the guy who has you beat and may have a set. You'd rather play a big pot multi-way with this hand - its just a high variance play.

The other thing is, usually when you raise draws you do it because you have some FE. You have a chance to fold out the other players in the hand and take the pot right there without having to get lucky hit your out card. SB just put on a check-raise and likes his hand. You have no fold equity, IMO, and need to hit to win.