200NL - induced a bluff, now I have to call it?

[Mossberg]

I'm too scared to call. villain is like 46/24/1 over only 60 hands. *note that it's 3handed so thats part of the reason why villain's stats are so loose.

Blinds: $1/$2
3 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Button: $495.65
Hero: $235.55
BB: $149.00

Pre-flop: (3 players) Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $7</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $24</font>, BB folds, Button calls.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($50, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $32</font>, Button calls.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($114, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($114, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button is all-in $438.65</font>, Hero ______?

[tarheeljks]

i would call b/c you have underrepped your hand

[***]

Snap fold. Even though villain is aggro, overbets are much more often for value than as bluffs. The turn check is confusing, but the cost of being wrong is too great to fool around here without a strong hand.

The river card helps a lot of reasonable holdings for villain on the river and if he has a monster he can hope that hero is either slowplaying or makes a huge call in the face of such a random bet. I think if villain has KQ here an overbet is a great play by him. On the other hand, if villain is thinking at all (and there's little reason to think he isn't) he should realise that an overbet as a bluff won't achieve any more than pot sized bluff.

[Mossberg]

yep, good post ***. I folded. At the time I was kinda hung up on the thought "why is he doing this if he has a hand he wants me to call with", but in hindsight, I think it's a good fold.

[aislephive]

[ QUOTE ]
Snap fold. Even though villain is aggro, overbets are much more often for value than as bluffs. The turn check is confusing, but the cost of being wrong is too great to fool around here without a strong hand.

The river card helps a lot of reasonable holdings for villain on the river and if he has a monster he can hope that hero is either slowplaying or makes a huge call in the face of such a random bet. I think if villain has KQ here an overbet is a great play by him. On the other hand, if villain is thinking at all (and there's little reason to think he isn't) he should realise that an overbet as a bluff won't achieve any more than pot sized bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I agree.

Also, I like a turn bet vs this guy.

[Worm75]

Why do we check the turn???????

[donkmagic]

i dont see what you're inducing a bluff from. theres like no likely draws that missed

[cs3]

[ QUOTE ]
Why do we check the turn???????

[/ QUOTE ]

[gimmetheloot]

[ QUOTE ]
Snap fold. Even though villain is aggro, overbets are much more often for value than as bluffs. The turn check is confusing, but the cost of being wrong is too great to fool around here without a strong hand.

The river card helps a lot of reasonable holdings for villain on the river and if he has a monster he can hope that hero is either slowplaying or makes a huge call in the face of such a random bet. I think if villain has KQ here an overbet is a great play by him. On the other hand, if villain is thinking at all (and there's little reason to think he isn't) he should realise that an overbet as a bluff won't achieve any more than pot sized bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

on the money man let this thing go quick.

[cs3]

i bet the turn because this guy is calling with any J, maybe even weaker.
given that it checked through, i think you definitely should bet the river.