Live: aces against UTG raiser

[Galwegian]

I play this live MTT every week and the standard is not bad for a live tourney (maybe about the same as one of the tilt $75 tourneys). No particular read on this villain - it was his first time playing the tourney. He won a pot just before this by calling a small flop bet in position with TP no kicker and then checking it down. The following hand was about the 10th hand of the tournament. Starting stacks were 7500. Villain has me covered.

buyin $150 - 10 players. Blinds 25/50
Stacks
UTG (villain) - 7800
MP2 (hero) - 6900

Preflop
Dealt to Hero - A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG raises to 300, 2 folds, Hero raises to 1000, 6 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: pot=2075
K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

UTG bets 4000, Hero ???

[coatsie]

i would say he would reraise pre with QQ+

not sure of what to make of his flop bet. my range could be off AK, JJ, KJ, KQ, AQ posibly a lower pair but my gut tells me 1.AQ 2.KQ 3.KJ? i push

[relativity_x]

what's he trying to do by betting 4k?

I think you have to call. I'd bet he's holding AQ, maybe AK.

[Galwegian]

[ QUOTE ]
what's he trying to do by betting 4k?

I think you have to call. I'd bet he's holding AQ, maybe AK.

[/ QUOTE ] He's committing himself to the pot - that's what he's doing. That's what puzzled me - he overbet preflop AND on the flop - what does that mean?

[Mr.Poker]

very very easy push. Who overbets with the nuts ...like ever. he probably has KQ or QQ.

[supair]

I agree that the flop bet makes it an easy push, as he is commited and we cant really fold due to his possible range. However, the preflop action screams jj, people have this irrational fear of playing jj due to the difficulty of playing post flop with overcards showing, thus they overbet preflop. Just my experience. Still, easy push and if hes flopped a set, all the best sir.

Ill add my own thinking as to his range, with no reads, utg, it would include in order of most to least likely...

KQs, QQ, AKs/o, JJ, 66, AJs, KQo, QJs, KJ.

[PantsOnFire]

This is a classic case of second guessing.

For me not to put all my chips in here, I would need to be more than 50% sure he had me beat. That's going to be pretty tough against an unknown player. And the size of the flop bet would indicate a player who has no knowledge of the game or an extremely crafty player. Again, I believe there is a less than 50% chance of that being true so based on my sound mathematics, I can only shove here.

[SonofDjugashvili]

This is a bizarre situation. As the OP said, live players tend to be tight, so don't look at this from the online POV. OTOH this is a very strange bet. AK is a possibility, but wouldn't he C/R or lead for less with that? I think he has precisely KK or JJ... or he is an idiot. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] In a live tourney, if he is a decent player, he has to be thinking that there is a very good chance we have AA or KK.

[JFJB]

There is a little over 2k in the pot and you have about 6k in your stack so reverse implied odds here are not a factor.

What beats you : KK, JJ, 66, KJ, J6. None of those hands are very probable but none the less they occur. If you are beat well you are beat.

What you beat : AK, KQ, Kx (other than J or 6), AQ, AJ, Q-10, QQ, JJ, 10-10, 99, 88, 77 etc. Now all of those hands are more probable than the hands that beat you.

You can not fold here. Do not try to figure out exactly what he has because you do not have the information you need to do so. The range of possibilities puts you ahead here and you guys are both short. You go for broke or double up here.

So you can call or raise all in. Frankly, vilain just pot commited himself with is 4000 bet and I think either calling or moving all in will not change much. I still think it is better to just call and let him put the rest of his moeny on the turn but not by much.

[SonofDjugashvili]

Sorry, forgot to add this to my post - on reflection, this sure looks like KJ - it looks like a scared 2-pair bet from a weak player.