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#1
06-06-2007, 01:01 AM
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q to bookies/smart punters
guy has a 6 team parlay that pays 1200. last leg is red sox. he calls you at the top of the 8th sox down 2-0 to the a's and asks for a payout. i offered him $120....he took it. how far off was i???
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#2
06-06-2007, 02:29 AM
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Re: q to bookies/smart punters
Top of the 8th before anything has happened?
Quick and dirty estimate not accounting for teams, pitchers, etc says 12.4% that BoSox win meaning you made a pretty decent offer. EV = (-120 * (1-.124)) + (.124 * 1200) = 43.68 edit: That's 43.68 with a starting pt of zero. In other words, you'll profit 43.68 on average.
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#3
06-06-2007, 02:51 AM
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Re: q to bookies/smart punters
If the Sox lose, he pays out zero. If the Sox win, he pays out 1200. Fair price is the breakeven.
Fair Price = 0*(1-.124) + .124*-1200 = -148.8 If the 12.4% was correct, you would pay out $148.80 in the long term. By paying out only $120, he profited $28.80. Maybe it's just late, and I've been drinking since the Tampa Bay game ended, but isn't this the correct calculation?
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#4
06-06-2007, 12:31 PM
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Re: q to bookies/smart punters
I think you made a smart deal, but I'm just guessing.
It's not like the Red Sox were completely handcuffed last night. They were putting guys on base every inning, then hitting into fluky double plays. One guy in the Red Sox thread in Sporting Events compared DiNardo's pitching line (no runs, a million walks and hits) to a terrible poker player who's winning all the chips for a couple of hours. I think the parlay bettor had more outs than he thought he did, and could've negotiated a higher settlement. Interesting question.
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#5
06-06-2007, 01:01 PM
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Re: q to bookies/smart punters
[ QUOTE ]
Top of the 8th before anything has happened? Quick and dirty estimate not accounting for teams, pitchers, etc says 12.4% that BoSox win meaning you made a pretty decent offer. EV = (-120 * (1-.124)) + (.124 * 1200) = 43.68 edit: That's 43.68 with a starting pt of zero. In other words, you'll profit 43.68 on average. [/ QUOTE ] thanks. how are you coming up w/ the 12.4%?
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#6
06-06-2007, 01:24 PM
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Re: q to bookies/smart punters
Fangraphs says 86.1 % for the A's to win, so 13.9% at that moment:
http://www.fangraphs.com/plays.aspx?...mp;season=2007
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#7
06-06-2007, 02:10 PM
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Re: q to bookies/smart punters
[ QUOTE ]
Fangraphs says 86.1 % for the A's to win, so 13.9% at that moment: http://www.fangraphs.com/plays.aspx?...mp;season=2007 [/ QUOTE ] cool site but whos calculation is correct kujustin or sonnyjay?
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