180 Man Ballers: General Theoretical Question

[VespaRally]

I can’t remember the exact stack sizes, but I had been playing somewhat aggressively and really active the last few hands. The table had been playing really passive since we were close to the bubble. There were ~ 22 left.

I was UTG with like 25-30 BBs or something and opened to 3x with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. It folded around to the BB who I had no reads on and no stats. He moved in for his whole stack, giving me 8-to-5 for my money. If I called and lost, I would be crippled.

My initial read was that he probably had something like 88 or better and that he wouldn’t be moving over the top with many worse unpaired hands than mine, if at all. I gave him the benefit of the doubt and mucked, realizing that it was pretty close if that was a good estimate of his range. Also, as I said, I had been stealing blinds pretty easily so I didn’t really want to take a close gamble just yet.

After doing some analysis though, I feel that this should be called and that it isn’t close. The reason is that if he does have this range 100% of the time it is only a small mistake. But let’s say instead of 7% of all hands, he is much looser and will move with like any pair, A8s or better, ATo+ and some suited Broadway cards (14% of all hands). If he moves with this range only 5% of the time, my call becomes +EV, worth a few chips.

If he moves in with that range a quarter of the time, a call is worth 40 chips.

Later on, he open-shoved w/ 25o UTG for like 12BBs 7-handed and I realized after the fact how huge AJs was against this guy. Granted, it’s a lot different than him moving over the top of my UTG raise, but it still has to lead to some doubt about how often I can be confident that he is moving in with a range that makes my call a mistake with AJs.

Sometimes I’m in the zone and I have a good read on all the players and will insta-call with AJs getting 8-to-5, but this time, readless, I definitely made a mistake by mucking. Against the general 180-man players, is this ever not a mistake?

[markbris]

I think its a big mistake to call personally. No reason to gamble here I don't think. Yea he could be a moron but you dont know that yet and the fact that he pushed on your UTG raise wiht a stack that was not short at all. I think this is the biggest factor and I think you have to fold. I guess it depends on whether you think people are morons until proven otherwise or the opposite.

[Hello Nasty]

Fold. If the 25o hand happened 1st I would probably call.

[kenny7]

I'd fold here,a call is too much of a gamble imo.Even tho he moved w his 2-5,I would think he would respect your UTG raise enough to have a good hand here,unless of course,you'd been pushing like crazy. Another reason for folding is,like you said,table is pretty tight as you are close to bubble,in my experience,this is when people tighten up big time. Was his 2-5 push before or after you were in the money? If after,then i'm even more certain that this is a fold.

[APipeDream]

With no reads, I'd say you're outkicked, against a pair, etc. Basically, an unknown "standard range" beats you most of the time here. Fold.

For your second question about it being a mistake, it is absolutely necessary to call this sometimes...actually, a lot of the time. Just not here.

[Salmo Trutta]

Fold for all of the above reasons.

[Sherman]

Its actually difficult to tell what the specific action was.

Exactly how big was his stack? How much would you have been left with if you called and lost?

What do you mean by UTG? 7 or 8 handed?

All important information.

Anyhow, I often raise with AJ with the intention of folding to re-raises by deep stacks or big shoves.

[sledghammer]

While a fold here is probably correct, you are thinking about the problem of unknowns correctly.

Let's say there are two types of players, tags(who make up 90% of the population in a 180 at this time and who will jam here 5%), and maniacs (10% of population, will jam here 25% of the time). If your unknown BB jams here, what is his range? Before he jams, he is 90% to be a tag, and 10% to be a maniac. After the jam, he is more likely to be a maniac:

(.10*.25)(.90*.05+.10*.25) = 35.7% chance he is a maniac, pushing 25% of his hands, 64.3% chance he is a tag, pushing 5%.

This is because after he jams, we have more information about his style, since maniacs jam here 5x as often as tags(according to our assumptions).

You can do EV calcs with those chances, they are only estimates though. I would think that the underlying proportion of maniacs at this stage of a 20/180 is much less than 10%.

[MJBuddy]

I think maniacs are a bit higher than 10% in general. Most of them weed out early and the ones who push their edges survive till the end, where I can see 10% being relatively correct.

[All_In_Olly]

One of the reasons I consistently fall at this stage of the 4/180 is that I don't adjust correctly and give some respect to the players still in the running.
(That and the fact that I'm nearing the end of my sixpack).

Readless and on the bubble, you've got to give some credit to the reraise and fold here IMO, though with AQ I'm probably calling.