200NL: Folding Bottom Set on the flop 125BBs

[KLJ]

BTN is a rational, above average (but not top 10) regular, normal 20/15/2ish.

I'm running at 22/18/3 for this session, my image maybe isn't that good at the moment because I'm getting killed like usual. Sometimes my stats drop as low as 17/13/2 depending on cards, situations, tables, etc, but I don't know how he perceives me.

UTG is a slightly looser, slightly more aggressive, and slightly more rational TAG.

No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $278.85
KLJ: $251
CO: $205.65
Button: $263.40
SB: $387.90
BB: $175.65

Pre-flop: (6 players) KLJ is UTG+1 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $8</font>, KLJ calls, CO folds, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($27, 3 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">KLJ bets $20</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises to $76</font>, UTG folds

Without knowing how in depth BTN can think, is this a muck/call/raise?

Please consider this hand deeper than omg set.

[ASPoker8]

When was the last time he was the preflop raiser, yet c/r'd you?

I almost never have this happen to me.


Edit: I think this is a shove against most-villains. However, this is a gross, weird spot and its important to know if he's ever used this line vs you before.

[Fonkey123]

He'd repop practically every time with QQ. I imagine he would repop TT ALMOST every time. Heavily discounting sets you have ~35% equity against a flush draw, and are crushing everything else. Being OOP I think this is a push, without worrying too much about it.

edit; preflop obv

[KLJ]

Villain (Button) is overcaller.

[ASPoker8]

o woops 1 sec

[ASPoker8]

This is actually really tough.

I'm trying to think of hands he does this with that you beat.

So far I have come up with AcQ. KcJ.

I might actually fold here if Button is really solid

[cs3]

cold calling from the button eliminates many of the semibluffs villain can have. for example he never has AcKx/AcQx (he would 3bet PF) or any other pair + flush draw (not hands he would call with PF). KcQx is the only hand that i can really put villain on that you need to protect against ( i doubt hed call KcJx, but you can add that too if you want) and thats a a very tiny part of his range. the rest of his range is either already beating you (flopped flush, TT) or has 0 outs to improve to beat you (QTs, QXs, wehre Q and X are obv non-clubs).

much of his range is beating you, but youre really not folding this on the flop (i doubt anyone is that disciplined especially with our redraw vs flushes), and almost no turn cards scare you if youre ahead, i just call and check any turn to give those hands you beat a chance to bet again, thinking they are protecting from your "flush draw". i dont much value at all in 3 bet psuhing the flop because a solid villain folds the few hands you can beat.

then on the turn you can decide whether or not to get all in. i think i would ch/r jsut about any turn (or call a push)everytime and then jsut pray the board pairs because i cant fold sets even though his range is ahead of ours.

i think a really solid player can find a turn fold if the board doesnt pair tho.

[ASPoker8]

I would just call AQ on the button facing an UTG raise and a call and I think its ridic to take so many hands out of his range

[cs3]

[ QUOTE ]
I would just call AQ on the button facing an UTG raise and a call and I think its ridic to take so many hands out of his range

[/ QUOTE ]

most TAGs 3 bet with AK/AQ on the button AT least 80% of the time. im not saying he NEVER shows up with them, but they should definitely not be a heavily weighted part of villains range.

also how do you include KcJ in his range that raises the flop but not KcQ?

[cowpig]

i would probably call, crai non-club non-pair turn, lead pair turn, c/c or c/f club turn

if you think about it you will see ^ is amazingly +ev if villain is aggressive. If not just shove