Flat calling here sucks, DUCY?

[Fiksdal]

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.10/$0.25 Blinds
5 Players
LegoPoker HH Converter

SB: $5.30
BB: $11.00
<font color="black">Hero (UTG): $52.75</font>
CO: $30.30
BTN: $35.80

<font color="black">Reads: </font><font color="blue">Villain is 26/24/3.5 over 25 hands

I have been active and raising a lot of hands.</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt K A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $1.00</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $4.00</font>, 3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $52.75</font>


Do you?

[vixticator]

I can live with any outcome and would do same.

[ReNoRyan]

very sexy

[Harry Fong]

The move is ok i guess but worst case scenario is your whole stack is being decided by the flip of a coin. If your bank roll can handle the variance than go for it.

[jonyy6788]

std

[Fiksdal]

I am a bankroll nit, trust me it can handle it. If it's +EV I'm doing it.

[vixticator]

[ QUOTE ]
I am a bankroll nit, trust me it can handle it. If it's +EV I'm doing it.

[/ QUOTE ]Me too I play NL10 with a $300 roll--used to play NL25 but cashed out $1,000 after that whole UIGE fiasco.

[Harry Fong]

two words, Game On.

[That Fish]

Assuming I did the math right.

Assume 3bets about half his normal raising range (10% here).
equity
Hand 0: 46.906% { 22+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 53.094% { AsKc }

He calls with top 3%
equity
Hand 0: 60.215% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 39.785% { AsKc }

So about 30% the time he's got a hand good enough to call the push.

70% of the time hero wins $5.35 for an EV of 5.35 x .7 = $3.68

When called hero wins $30.5 40% of the time = $12.2
When called here loses $30.5 60% of the time = $18.3
or a net EV of -$6.1 when called, which happens 30% of the time or - $1.83

Net EV = 3.68 - 1.83 = $1.85

When stack sizes are such that .3 x (.4s - .6s) = 3.68 it's neutral EV. So stacks &gt;$62 make this -EV. Or about 250BB

Hand ranges can change quite a bit before this approaches -EV land.

So how tight does he have to be to make this incorrect?
60/40 dog when called QQ+ AKo/AKs, include JJ and it's 62/38 so close enough for this estimate.

fold% x 5.35 = Call% x 6.1
but Call% = 1 - fold%.
-&gt; fold% = 6.1/11.45 or 53%

So he must then have a hand good enough to call 1/2 the time, or about top 5.3% of hands.

He needs to be 3bettting here with 88+, AJs+, KQs, AK, and calling the push with QQ+AKo, AKs for this to be neutral EV.

I'd assume he'd need a pfr of &gt;15 before this is good...

[Lordy]

I don't think this move is profitable at NL25 without any light 3-betting history. People just don't 3-bet light that often and the standard range is like JJ+/AK....