NL50, nuts on river, bet into (quintessential river raising issue)

[Peter Harris]

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $49.50
BB: $97.64
UTG: $48.81
MP: $75.66
CO: $40.86
<font color="black">Hero (BTN): $83.98</font>

<font color="black">Reads: </font><font color="blue">Villain 22/13/2.2 over 100 hands. In prior hands, villain bet down AA as an overpair to a xxx K x board on all 3 streets, so knows how to value bet. villain raised a PP pf.</font>



is the turn check standard, since being c/r hurts bad? The nub of this post is - how is my river raise? is it the right size? I know about raising to maximize my EV, i was wondering if i should be raising more with the nuts on the river, expecting them to call only a tiny percentage less for a greater return. When the river came, this raise amount struck me as right. Is it? (EDIT: in retrospect, i think 14 is called as much as 11, so its obv not right).


<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.50, SB calls $0.25, BB checks

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($2) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $1.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.00</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.00

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($8) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

<font color="black">River:</font> ($8) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $3.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $11.00</font>

[Angrymoog]

well played, you could have raised it more, like 15/16 on the river but thats probably the most you get him to call his pair down with.

[Peter Harris]

[ QUOTE ]
well played, you could have raised it more, like 15/16 on the river but thats probably the most you get him to call his pair down with.

[/ QUOTE ]

reading the board at the time i thought he may have something like 22, A2 for the wheel, maybe 2 pair (unlikely). Flush likely?

[KEW]

Actually I would've only raised to about $9...Villain is either making a weaker blocking bet in which case he'll fold OR he's making a weak bet to induce a raise...IMO the weaker raise will get called by a much wider range and allow villain room the reraise if he chooses..

FWIW..OP does not have the nutz...

[filsteal]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW..OP does not have the nutz...

[/ QUOTE ]

VPIP 22 villain isn't playing 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] UTG, but, still, point well taken.

[Emperor Norton]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually I would've only raised to about $9...Villain is either making a weaker blocking bet in which case he'll fold OR he's making a weak bet to induce a raise...

[/ QUOTE ]

This is actually an argument for a push, not a small raise. If what you say is true, then villain either holds a strong hand that he'll have a hard time folding to an overbet, or he has a weak hand that he'll fold regardless.

[KEW]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Actually I would've only raised to about $9...Villain is either making a weaker blocking bet in which case he'll fold OR he's making a weak bet to induce a raise...

[/ QUOTE ]

This is actually an argument for a push, not a small raise. If what you say is true, then villain either holds a strong hand that he'll have a hard time folding to an overbet, or he has a weak hand that he'll fold regardless.

[/ QUOTE ]


This would be true but in my next sentence I say that the smaller raise will be called by a wider range of hands like 2 pair or strong aces while at the same time allowing villain to raise OTT with smaller flush and maybe sets..

[filsteal]

I'm having a heck of a hard time putting this guy on a hand. 22 VPIP probably isn't open-limping a weak ace, and he's probably not calling the flop without an ace or a draw. Seems weird that he would be limping suited gappers UTG for an OESD, and if he seems to know when to v-bet, a set doesn't seem likely. So maybe you're looking at like either AT/AJ, or a flush. But the fact that you have the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] takes away some of his potential big-card flush hands.

So I guess this is most likely to be AJ/AT. $14 sounds about right, and if he has the flush, he might reraise anyway (maybe with the Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]).

[Peter Harris]

thanks folks. Yeah, not the nuts, but i coolly discounted the straight flush from my estimations.

this is kind of an issue i have, i'm never sure i'm raising the river enough to be maximizing my EV, and villain flat called showing Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], leaving me thinking "dammit, not enough value on river raise".

Next time i'll raise pot and give him 2-1. One day i'll stack him giving him evens.

[ama0330]

This is okay but yeah probably a little more on the river. I often shove this if my read is that he is too weak to call, I figure its good to give him the chance to think you are bluffing.