15/30 2 pair on the turn

[ssmallz]

Bellagio 15/30, I'm running like crap but the table is good

Villain here just sat down and posted in LP so I have no read on him other than he's a clean shaven white guy in his mid 30s.

Poster checks his option, button limps, I check Kd4c in the bb and take the flop 3 ways.

Flop AdKc4d giving me 2 pair w/the nut flush redraw. I decide to c/r the flop b/c I've got all of it, one of them might bluff and I'm not overly concerned about a diamond on the turn b/c I still have a redraw to the nuts. Poster checks, button bets, I c/r, poster calls, button folds.

Turn 3s I bet, poster now raises

I.........

I'll post my analysis later. Please include hand ranges and not just, "you have 2 pair so call down UI"

[surfdoc]

Not to be nitty (but I will be) but you don't have the "nut flush redraw." You have a backdoor draw to the nut flush. Get your terminology right fish.

[ssmallz]

[ QUOTE ]
Not to be nitty (but I will be) but you don't have the "nut flush redraw." You have a backdoor draw to the nut flush. Get your terminology right fish.

[/ QUOTE ]

I meant that if the turn is a diamond, I have the nut flush draw, just in case the flop gets checked through and the turn is a diamond.

[borisp]

I put the poster on one of the following hands: Ax (maybe x = 3,4,K, but probably not, can't know for sure, here is a spot where live reads can be the tiebreaker), 25, K3, or random trips/QJ diamonds. Those are listed in relative order of likelihood. If he is a good player, then the Ax becomes far less likely, and a hand like 25 diamonds is more likely.

So to answer the "I....", you should call and then check/ call.

(Hopefully this is not retarded, as I have spent < 20hrs at these limits, and I'm still trying to learn.)

[Clover362]

Given that we don't know anything about this opponent I think calling then c/c on the river is best. Against agression from unkowns I often slow way down to get to showdown cheaply so i can gain information for later in the session.

[RobA]

was good playing with you at the bellagio.

it sounds like you don't wanna just hear "call down" but i think that's the right thing to do. are you against a "big hand", a draw, or a raise for a free showdown? the big hands are 33, A3o, or less likely 44 or A4o. (i think you have to assume he wouldn't check AK, KK, or AA preflop, and he wouldn't call 2 cold on the flop with 52.) so there add up to very few combos. i think 19 total combos (33-3, 44-1, A3-9, A4-6).

The "draws" are diamonds, with 56 making a lot of sense. i don't have the resources to calcualte the number of combos on this, but seems like a lot. i saw people raise the turn with draws every so often at the bellagio last week.

Finally he could have some "free showdown" hands like AT, A9, A8, but i saw almost no one do this all last week.

so, i think its pretty likely (like around 50% of the time) he has a draw here. so if he has a draw, and it misses, how much money are you gonna get? if you 3-bet the turn and he calls, and then the river bricks for him, he's going to easily fold the river, and you got 3 big bets on the big streets. if you call the turn, and the river bricks for him, he may very well bluff the river, and you would also get 3 big bets that way.

if he's raising for a "free-showdown", if you 3-bet, he's going to fold, so you're not getting any more money here, although you have the benefit of not letting him see the river.

finally, if he has a big-hand, 3-betting is giving him money.

so i think looking at this hand in a vacuum, its clear that the best line is to call, and check/call the river.

however, 3-betting the turn (if he does have a draw, or a "free showdown" hand) may offer some benefits to you for table image/meta-game stuff in that people would seemingly be less likely to "make moves" that put you in awkward spots in the future. to get this benefit, you have to show your hand after he folds.

[ssmallz]

Ax hands - I don't put him on a good ace here b/c I think he likely raises AT PF but I've definatly gotta consider it b/c he might not autoraise those hands like I would. On top of that, if he doesn't raise Ax pf, it would be reasonable to assume he's not the type of person who would be willing to raise me on turn on this board after I've shown so much strenth on the flop. A more likely line would be to just call the turn and call the river.

Draw - It would take a pretty bad player to raise a draw on this board on the turn, much better for him to 3 bet the flop or lead the flop. I initially put him on a flush draw when he called the 2 cold on the flop but why would he just call the flop and raise the turn when his equity is less? Also this is a live vegas game where most people are pretty weak tight. Most turn raises are 2 pair or better in general and very few players are capable of taking a line like this w/less. Also with my show of strenth on the flop, why would he think he can knock me off my hand?

2 pair/set - this seems like his most common holding. A3/A4/44/34. Coldcalling the flop and raising the turn is a very strong move and these are the only hands I can put him on that take this line. AA/KK/AK would def raise pf so I can eliminate them but since he's a poster the other 2 pair combos are certainly w/in his range.

Which leads me back to the reason I posted the Q in the first place. Aside from 34o which is rare, the only hands I feel comfortable putting him on are hands I've got 2 outs against @ best. Calling down is the easy play/standard play but is it the right play? Are we really trying to read his hand or are we just looking at ours.

[RobA]

i think your thoughts are good, but you might be underestimating his chance of a draw here. you say "it would take a bad player" to make this play with a draw. i can clearly remember seeing this done (raise draw on turn) twice on my last day in vegas last week.

additionally, though i said before that most players probably are in the mode of attempting to "play good" on the first hand of the day, it also may be a spot that some jump at chances to establish a more wild/crazy. i would only feel comfortable folding this hand, after the river hits a diamond, maybe. ....

maybe i'm way off on his chances of a draw, but i'd like to see what others think about that...

[ssmallz]

[ QUOTE ]
i think your thoughts are good, but you might be underestimating his chance of a draw here. you say "it would take a bad player" to make this play with a draw. i can clearly remember seeing this done (raise draw on turn) twice on my last day in vegas last week.

additionally, though i said before that most players probably are in the mode of attempting to "play good" on the first hand of the day, it also may be a spot that some jump at chances to establish a more wild/crazy. i would only feel comfortable folding this hand, after the river hits a diamond, maybe. ....

maybe i'm way off on his chances of a draw, but i'd like to see what others think about that...

[/ QUOTE ]

Not trying to say that these players don't riase draws on the turn as a semibluff, just that after I c/r the flop, it's differnt than if I just bet out and he called and raised the turn. I will post the rest of the hand as soon as discussion dies down.

[ssmallz]

Villain had 44 and MHING. Frustrating when you know you're beat but call down anyway