Doing a chris jesus and running cards through twice

[NogbadTheBad]

Hi,
Okay so me and a friend are trying to do a chris jesus (build a bankroll from freerolls, up to $10000) on bodog.
Anyway he final tabled a freeroll and got $12. Now, the minimum cash games you can play is 5 cent, 10 cent and the min buy in is $2. And according to the chris jesus rules...

1 I'll never buy into a cash game or a Sit & Go with more than 5 percent of my total bankroll (there is an exception for the lowest limits: I'm allowed to buy into any game with a buy-in of $2.50 or less).
2 I won't buy into a multi-table tournament for more than 2 percent of my total bankroll and I'm allowed to buy into any multi-table tournament that costs $1.
3 If at any time during a No-Limit or Pot-Limit cash-game session the money on the table represents more than 10 percent of my total bankroll, I must leave the game when the blinds reach me

... we shouldn't buy in for more than $2. Anyways he bought in for $5 every time, and donked it off in a rapid fire sucession of bad beats. Surely the rules are to avoid this, to decrease the variance right? Is it still beneficial to min buy in even if you will be shortstacking? The players are so bad on bodog I think it might even be right to buy in more, ie buy into the green zone; our edge is greater when we actually play poker against them. Any thoughts?

And seconldy, when players run cards through more than once;
I was watching high stakes poker the other day and players were running the cards through twice. Negreanu said all it does is decrease the variance, but I'm not sure thats all it does. The cards aren't replaced and shuffled after the first run; ie the 2 runs arent completely independant. I think it may favour one side. Any ideas?

Thanks in advance

Al

[DrVanNostrin]

[ QUOTE ]
And seconldy, when players run cards through more than once;
I was watching high stakes poker the other day and players were running the cards through twice. Negreanu said all it does is decrease the variance, but I'm not sure thats all it does. The cards aren't replaced and shuffled after the first run; ie the 2 runs arent completely independant. I think it may favour one side. Any ideas?

[/ QUOTE ]
Negreanu is right about this one. The EV does not change.

[Gonso]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And seconldy, when players run cards through more than once;
I was watching high stakes poker the other day and players were running the cards through twice. Negreanu said all it does is decrease the variance, but I'm not sure thats all it does. The cards aren't replaced and shuffled after the first run; ie the 2 runs arent completely independant. I think it may favour one side. Any ideas?

[/ QUOTE ]
Negreanu is right about this one. The EV does not change.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, you can run it 5 times if you want, expectation will not change.

[sh58]

i think jesus said that he also lost his roll several times before he managed to get a good score in a MTT, SNG or cashgame. you just have to keep cashing in the freerolls and you will eventually get enough money to play .05/.10

[Bantam222]

I think those rules only apply for there are limits within your BR. It was not disigned for playing with min buyins. Move to a site like stars with .01/.02 or start using this system once your BR is larger

[sh58]

yeah but obv jesus did his on full tilt

[DPP LDR]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And seconldy, when players run cards through more than once;
I was watching high stakes poker the other day and players were running the cards through twice. Negreanu said all it does is decrease the variance, but I'm not sure thats all it does. The cards aren't replaced and shuffled after the first run; ie the 2 runs arent completely independant. I think it may favour one side. Any ideas?

[/ QUOTE ]
Negreanu is right about this one. The EV does not change.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, you can run it 5 times if you want, expectation will not change.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you explain why it doesnt change your EV if you win one running it once your EV would have been whatever the pot ended up being if you run it 2 times and split it your EV is
0 or not much better, you only get your money back or the profit from the blinds and limpers so how does your EV not vary at all

[NogbadTheBad]

DPP,
EV is short hand for expected value, ie how much you expect (in a probabilistic sense) to make.
Say you go all in on the turn, with a 90% chance to win. 90% of the time you expect to win the entire pot, 10% you win zip.
However if you run the river through twice, there are 3 outcomes:
You win both runs and hence the entire pot,
You win one run, he wins the other; you get half the pot,
You win neither run and he scoops the pot.
It turn out that you expect to win the same amount of chips, if you run it through once or twice.

[ApeAttack]

[ QUOTE ]

And seconldy, when players run cards through more than once;
I was watching high stakes poker the other day and players were running the cards through twice. Negreanu said all it does is decrease the variance, but I'm not sure thats all it does. The cards aren't replaced and shuffled after the first run; ie the 2 runs arent completely independant. I think it may favour one side.


[/ QUOTE ]

Easiest way to see that the EV doesn't change:

Say you get it all-in on the turn. You are playing with a special deck that only contains two more cards, labeled A and B. You win only if card A comes out (you have 1/2 chance in winning).

Run it once, you will win the whole pot 50% the time (EV = 1/2 pot).

Run it twice, you will win 1/2 the pot 100% of the time (EV = 1/2 pot).

It is conceptually the same with more cards in the deck and more than 1 card to come. Do a search and you can probably find a mathematical proof.

[Cold Deck x]

3 If at any time during a No-Limit or Pot-Limit cash-game session the money on the table represents more than 10 percent of my total bankroll, I must leave the game when the blinds reach me

Why is this important?