200/400 one of the biggest laydowns ive made at 8b

[TStoneMBD]

200/400 oe at bellagio. couple people fold, a kid with As raises and he should be raising here 100%.

3rd:

xx-As-RAISE
xx-J-fold
6c7c-6d-bringin-call

4th:

xx-As 2s-raise
6c7c-6d Ad-BET-call

5th:
xx-As 2s 3c-call
6c7c-6d Ad Ah-BET

6th:
xx-As 2s 3c 4d-bet
6c7c-6d Ad Ah 4h-CHECK-fold


on 4th street when he raises i figure he has to have either a pair of aces, a wheel draw or a low draw with a flush draw, with a slight chance he has some other hand.

on 5th street when i bet he thought for a second and called which told me he might be thinking about raising, he obviously isnt folding.

on 6th when i check he paused and bet. this tells me hes either hollywooding the wheel or he had a decision to make.

1) if he had a flush draw + low draw on 4th then any made low has to bet 6th unless its a 7 low, in which case he has to decide whether to bet his 7 low plus flush draw, and if thats his hand hes freerolling to 12 outs.

2) if he had a pair of aces which is unlikely because i have them, itd be really strange for him to bet them against my board, unless he had a made 6 in which case hes freerolling to any 5.

3) if he raised 4th with a wheel draw then he made it unless he made two pair, 4s and 3s which seems unlikely for him to bet, but he might.

4) its also really unlikely he has a made 6 because hed have to raise 4th with A236 which seems a bit unlikely and i have 2 of his 6s, making a wheel more likely.


whats everyone think?

[betgo]

I don't play those stakes, but I call him down. As you said, he doesn't need much to complete 3rd. On 4th, you led into the raiser, so I don't think he needs a huge hand to raise.

[DeathDonkey]

I think you got scary good at this game.

-DeathDonkey

[HOWMANY]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you got scary good at this game.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a really impressive hand. The first time I looked at it I thought it was a calldown, but then I looked harder, tried and tried to concoct a way for us to be winning and failed. Then I tried to come up with an explanation for why we need to peel and couldn't think of a good one. In the end I decided that this is probably an expert laydown that I am not even remotely capable of thinking about let alone actually making.

[Phat Mack]

First, let me say that I'd probably fold on 6th if I were in your shoes, although I'm not sure it is correct. But looking at 4 wheel cards while heads up isn't a situation I'm looking for. Having said that...

I probably re-raise on third. I'm heads up, I think this is a 5-handed game where getting heads up is more of a possibility, and your 6c7c6d is a hand I like in this situation.

Also, I probably re-raise fourth street. I like my ace, think I'm in good shape and want to put some pressure on the A2 in order to see what happens. It's still a cheap round, and I can get some info on the economy plan.

5th street is kinda interesting. You bet into an A23, and he just calls. WTF? Did he have a spade draw (I haven't seen any dead spades), and just pick up a low draw? Does he have a monster? Does he have nothing yet that can beat a pair of aces?

On 6th he has a depressingly good board and throws a BB in to the pot, making 6BBs. You're getting 6:1, 3:1 or maybe 0:1 to call. Plus you've got to throw another BB in on 7th. Which dealer gave you this POS? Let's blame the dealer.

But anyway, what I'd like to suggest is that if you played more aggressively on the early streets, you might (that's only a might) have had an easier decision on 6th street. Just suggesting...

[lane mcbride]

I think there are a few possible hands here. a wheel is the most likely

To me it seems rather plausible he has a 3 under there by the way he played fifth

but 6s 3s or 6s 7s makes a little, though not complete, sense to me as well. overall I say he has the wheel enough to merit a fold

[RichGangi]

I feel like this is one of those hands where it's very easy to say 'Yeah, I would've mucked there as well.' When, in reality, 90% of Stud/8 players would go to the river imo. I think you lost the minimum, Mike. VNH.
P.S. I will NOT be sitting at a Stud/8 table with you in the forseeable future. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[SweetLuckyMe]

This one is extremely player dependent - anywhere from a check/call down to dumping it where you did. It'll cost you 2 big bets to get to showdown and you're not drawing dead. I actually think it's more likely that he has a small aces up and better low draw than you have, rather than the wheel. I may very well fold it, but it wouldn't be automatic.

I've found many players unwilling to not bet their board after they've raised with the A door - even though they should slow down. That's the factor that makes it enough player dependent to make me not auto-fold it.

[Pokerlicious]

This is an interesting hand, and an interesting laydown. I dislike calling down, but I don't see how folding can be right here.

As you said, on third he should have any 2 under. When you bet into him on fourth with A6 suited, and he raises A2 suited, this helps narrow down his range. Very few people with will raise someone who catches an ace on 4th unless they have a strong hand.

What does this mean? First, he could have an ace under and his raise is for value. A second possibility is that he has buried twos. Alternatively, he could have 2 spades under and be looking to maintain the initiative and possibly take a free card on a big street if he stays in position (I do not agree with this play on these boards, but it's a possibility if it is an aggressive player). The worst case scenario is that he has 2 baby spades underneath, but this seems unlikely since it is a very small part of his range. I don't think he's too likely to have only a wheel draw unless he is a very aggressive player.

Given the way the hand played out, and given the possible combinations, I think his most likely hand is small aces up, which you beat (although he has a draw for low). Even if he does have the deuces, you're not in horrible shape since you have a low draw (although his is better) and you have 3 outs to win high which are good even if he fills. If he has spades, you're ahead for high and he may or may not have a low, so your hand can hold for high and/or you may have low escape outs. You also have 3 outs to win half if he does have a 5, but given the play of the hand I don't see a 5 as that high a probability in relation to the other possibilities.

I meant to mention this earlier, but on this hand I think the dead cards are absolutely *critical*. You didn't mention them, so I assume they are not relevant, but the analysis will change significantly if an ace, deuce, five, or a few spades were folded.

[Andy B]

I think this was a good lay-down. Not that I'd ever make it. I mean, he could totally have 43 down.