Simple turn spot

[Schneids]

Baffa: posts small blind $100
AlexSem: posts big blind $200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PapaWarbucks [Qs 9c]
doulas12: folds
iwanturmoney: folds
Quackers: folds
PapaWarbucks: raises $200 to $400
Baffa: folds
AlexSem: raises $200 to $600
PapaWarbucks: calls $200
*** FLOP *** [7d Qd 9d]
AlexSem: bets $200
PapaWarbucks: raises $200 to $400
AlexSem: calls $200
*** TURN *** [7d Qd 9d] [6d]
AlexSem: checks
PapaWarbucks: ???????????


I think you either check and call a river bet, or bet/fold.

Thoughts? Should it matter that Alex never believes I have anything?

[andyfox]

I prefer check and call a river bet. Checking the turn might induce a river bluff (or perceived value bet by a hand you can beat) and eliminates the fold to a check-raise on the turn which might deprive you of a full house and big payoff on the river.

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
I prefer check and call a river bet. Checking the turn might induce a river bluff (or perceived value bet by a hand you can beat) and eliminates the fold to a check-raise on the turn which might deprive you of a full house and big payoff on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

checking allows him a free draw to chop though if he's lacking a diamond. my two pair is the nuts if he has no diamond.

[Trencherman]

Schneids,

You seem to be implying that Hero is unlikely to win 2 big bets on the river after filling up; hence, bet/fold > bet/call. Is this an accurate assessment of your preference for bet/fold > bet/call?

[Hock_]

[ QUOTE ]
checking allows him a free draw to chop though if he's lacking a diamond. my two pair is the nuts if he has no diamond.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but what do you put him on? Purely statistically, there's a slightly higher than 50% chance he has a diamond. The fact that he called the flop indicates that the chances are even higher. If he has a diamond then a bet is clearly -EV if he calls, and twice as bad if he raises. If he doesn't have a diamond then there's not much that he calls with, and the turn check might allow him to improve to a hand that would call a river bet or induce a bluff on the river. That there aren't many draws you're worried about now that the 4th diamond hit weighs even more in favor of checking the turn.

Check turn. Call river or bet if checked to.

[The Bryce]

Bet twice, unless you think he's c/ring you. He c/red the flop, so if he has a non-diamond hand it should be pretty strong and you'll often get 2 bets.

[TxRedMan]

I check and call a river bet.

Seems like an easy decision. If you bet and he raises, you're folding, so why would you take that line when you can get to showdown w/ a hand that has value + 4 outs to fill for the same price, plus the times you fill and he has a big hand and you win 2 BB's on the river. Not to mention the times he bets the river w/ a lesser hand.

The above is > than the times when you chop a fifth diamond on the river.

I think the real question is whether or not you bet the river if checked to again, and what your action is if he raises.

[mike l.]

bet-fold would be a bad line against great players. bet-call, then check-fold sounds good, but you lose an extra bet when beat. if you bet the turn and he calls you should what? check-call?

it all adds up to checking and then calling the river being the smartest play. the weird spot is when he checks the river to you again. would he ever c/r there?

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
it all adds up to checking and then calling the river being the smartest play. the weird spot is when he checks the river to you again. would he ever c/r there?

[/ QUOTE ]

Losing 1/2 the pot 20% of the time is a pretty big deal here and requires an opponent who would bluff with a pretty high frequency / checkraise a high number of diamonds that he wouldn't 3bet on the flop. The preflop+flop doesn't lead me to believe that he'll have Ad too often here so I think a bet is better. When checkraised, given the fact that you have 4 outs and your opponent will be pure bluffing and may give up sometimes, I'd call and fold to a river bet UI.

The fact that Alex never believes Schneids has anything probably compounds this since I'd guess he's somewhat more likely to check-call with hands that Q9 crushes here, but I'm not sure how it effects his likelihood to checkraise bluff/checkraise a more liberal range of flushes.

Anyway, I'd betcall and fold the river, like I said, mostly because of how much that chopdraw is worth (~.55BB or so) and the combo of implied odds+stopping bluffs. If forced to chose between bet/fold (getting 8.5:1, I think) and check-behind and call, I suppose I'd tend to check behind and call though. I just wouldn't opt to make that play in this spot without knowing a lot more about how Alexsem tends to play the flop with a big diamond+overs or how he plays the turn with hands like 8x8d.

Rob

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
or how he plays the turn with hands like 8x8d.

[/ QUOTE ]

His options with 88 on the turn are really just betting out or checking and calling. Check-raising with something like 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8x seems to be pretty clearly irrational unless Schneids either calls down or folds way too easily. For that reason -- he should require a pretty good flush to check-raise -- I'm less concerned about the check-raise than some of you and more inclined to hold my nose and call it down if it happens.