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#1
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please help me figure out whos getting the better of this?
ok so me and a buddy were railing matusow, aba, etc play omaha...and we started prop betting the flops
person A Wins $10 if no flop is seen Wins $15 if first card on flop was a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] person B Wins $10 if [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], or [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] was first card on flop whos getting the better of it in the long run? |
#2
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Re: please help me figure out whos getting the better of this?
wow a probability question i can answer (or at least try). going to just sloppily do some algebra, where P = probability of flop being seen
(P)*10 + 15*(1-P)*.25 = 10*(1-P)*.75 10P + (1-P)*3.75 = (1-P)*7.5 10P + 3.75 - 3.75P = 7.5 - 7.5P 13.75P = 3.75 P = 0.273 if they see the flop less than 27% of the time, you're getting the better of it. if more (which i would definitely assume so), you're getting the worse end. |
#3
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Re: please help me figure out whos getting the better of this?
[ QUOTE ]
wow a probability question i can answer (or at least try). going to just sloppily do some algebra, where P = probability of flop being seen (P)*10 + 15*(1-P)*.25 = 10*(1-P)*.75 10P + (1-P)*3.75 = (1-P)*7.5 10P + 3.75 - 3.75P = 7.5 - 7.5P 13.75P = 3.75 P = 0.273 if they see the flop less than 27% of the time, you're getting the better of it. if more (which i would definitely assume so), you're getting the worse end. [/ QUOTE ] Correct algebra, but your interpretation is backward. In your equation, P is actually the probability of NOT seeing the flop, and P = 3/11. This means that person A has the best of it if there is NO flop more than 3/11 or 27.3% of the time, meaning that they see the flop less than 8/11 or 72.7% of the time. If there are 10 players, and each player sees the flop less than 13.4% of the time when they are not in the big blind, then person A has the best of it since (1-0.134)^9 > 3/11. This is reasonable if the game is tight enough. |
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