AK where I 4bet pf and realize I'm pot committed -- 50NL

[Kasane]

My villain is a reasonable TAG player who will 3bet AK-AQs pf and maybe a little more than usual when he thinks you're fos. I do think he's tight and folding most everything to a 4bet.

I think he thinks I'm an aggrotard. I've been raising a lot and shown down a couple of weird ones. I've been b/folding a fair amount, and c/folding from called c-bets.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $18.40
BB: $50
UTG: $72.30
MP: $67.85
<font color="black">Hero (CO): $50.75</font>
BTN: $88.60

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $6</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $22</font>, BTN calls $16

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($44.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero ...</font>

Thoughts on the 4bet size welcome -- I thought a push would convince him I have exactly what I have, AK and he'd call with a ton of flips. As long as it was push or fold, and I didn't mind pushing here OOP, I felt I'd be more likely to get a fold at this point from repping AA-KK with "call me" 4-bet size. Might be mistake #1.

Once he calls, I think we can seriously discount KK-AA for villain and put him on JJ-AA (leaning heavily towards the bottom) and AK. We don't need villain to fold very often to make a push correct here, do we? We're getting called pretty often though.

[coordi]

thats the problem with play ak like this. your now playing hand as a bluff and that relies on your read of opp. if you think you can get him to fold, or you feel lucky, push. otherwise shutdown to his dominant overpair.

[Sirasoni]

Why can we discount KK and AA? For what it's worth, if I'm IP and I'm 4bet, I call and shove flop if he bets simply because he is likely to bet out with QQ and AK on dry flops. I rarely 5-bet shove preflop here because it scares out precisely those two hands, QQ and AK ;[ (though QQ less so).

[Kasane]

KK and AA can be discounted seriously. For one, I have AK. Two, by the time I have half my stack in I'm pot committed. You can push here with AA, KK all day long and should. QQ and AK aren't folding -- or shouldn't be. AK still has 33%+ equity or so against KK. And QQ, again, you don't put half your stack in with QQ and fold, not if you're 4 betting the right opponent. From what I know of villain, he's pushing AA, KK here every time.

Sure, there's a chance he has AA, KK -- I just don't think it's likely. AA, KK should both be pushing here.

Calling a 3-bet with AA, KK in position is much more common and I do it to. Not a 4 bet.

[Bantam222]

If you 4bet pre flop you have to push this flop right...? you didn't risk $22 just to win the $6 in there did you?

[Entropy4]

[ QUOTE ]
KK and AA can be discounted seriously. For one, I have AK. Two, by the time I have half my stack in I'm pot committed. You can push here with AA, KK all day long and should. QQ and AK aren't folding -- or shouldn't be. AK still has 33%+ equity or so against KK. And QQ, again, you don't put half your stack in with QQ and fold, not if you're 4 betting the right opponent. From what I know of villain, he's pushing AA, KK here every time.

Sure, there's a chance he has AA, KK -- I just don't think it's likely. AA, KK should both be pushing here.

Calling a 3-bet with AA, KK in position is much more common and I do it to. Not a 4 bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the 4-bet is terrible. All it accomplishes is getting AQ to fold, which you are dominating anyway. Only things that call are QQ-AA, sometimes JJ and rarely another AK. On this flop, you limit yourself to shoving or folding, and if you shove you're praying he has AK too, because you're a huge underdog to anything else.

You can't discount AA and KK because you have an A and K. Sure, it's less likely, but it's still very possible. QQ is more likely, but regardless, you're behind to pretty everything that calls your 4-bet reasonably.

Also, work on your math. With 2 cards to come, AK is not 33% against AA, it's a meager 10% at most. Even against QQ, which is marginally more likely here, you're not even 25% to win.

The four-bet is terrible. You said villain seemed to believe you were playing lagtard, and he would be right. I'd check/fold flop and kick myself.

[C4LL4W4Y]

[ QUOTE ]
The four-bet is terrible. You said villain seemed to believe you were playing lagtard, and he would be right. I'd check/fold flop and kick myself.

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain believes OP is playing lagtard, his range opens up which doesn't make it that horrible. If you're check folding after 4betting here, you're crazy - though I'd imagine you wouldn't be 4betting.

[Kasane]

At least you're arguing right and thinking about it. But I think you're wrong.

Okay -- your first point might be right on. The 4bet might be terrible. That's why I'm posting this. It's usually push or fold, but I included my read on why I did what I did, and I think the call from villain is the last thing I was expecting. Hence the post. My 4-bet is a push with an extra nudge of read -- what I thought my opponent would fold to. Yes, a fold is my best outcome.

Yes, I can discount AA, KK because I have AK. That's the basis of hand ranges. I have an A, and a K -- therefore they can't have AA or KK nearly as often as if I had QQ. Half as often, in fact. That and the preflop action cuts it down further. Yes, it is there - but with sensible application of a read you can cut it down again. My opponent wasn't the tricky type. He's not an AA, KK caller in position generally. Can I absolutely knock 'em out of his range? No, and I'm not. If I had 3bet and he called in position, I wouldn't discount AA, KK much at all.

I wasn't arguing that AK is 33% after the flop. That was pf percentages, and a good part of my argument on why calling a push with AK is nearly mandatory once you've 4bet the flop.

It's down to 25% against JJ, QQ now that I've seen the flop. But against JJ, QQ, AK (if AK is folding) -- this is a clear push for pot odds. If I chk, I'm committed to a call given my estimation of villain's range.

I think. Someone stove this for me with say one combo of AA, KK -- add one of AQs for good measure, all the JJ, and QQ combos and half of the AK combos. That'd be about right I think.

This reply was for Entropy's response.

[Kasane]

Finally broke down and got pokerstove.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

22,770 games 0.005 secs 4,554,000 games/sec

Board: 5s 5d 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.484% 13.11% 19.37% 2986 4410.50 { AcKs }
Hand 1: 67.516% 48.15% 19.37% 10963 4410.50 { AdAh, KdKh, QQ-JJ, AKs, AKo }

Clear push then, not even given any FE -- and we've got more than a little against AK. Though to be fair, if we discount AA and KK, then we've got to discount AK some too.

Wish I knew how to more easily cut ranges down though. Had to manually input one combo of AA and KK -- is there an easier way?

[Genz]

[ QUOTE ]
KK and AA can be discounted seriously. For one, I have AK. Two, by the time I have half my stack in I'm pot committed. You can push here with AA, KK all day long and should. QQ and AK aren't folding -- or shouldn't be. AK still has 33%+ equity or so against KK. And QQ, again, you don't put half your stack in with QQ and fold, not if you're 4 betting the right opponent. From what I know of villain, he's pushing AA, KK here every time.

Sure, there's a chance he has AA, KK -- I just don't think it's likely. AA, KK should both be pushing here.

Calling a 3-bet with AA, KK in position is much more common and I do it to. Not a 4 bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't read the whole thread, but you are making some serious mistakes in your argumentation here. Just because villain SHOULD push with AA,KK here because you feel pot commited and it would be the right thing to do, doesn't mean, he thinks the same way. Don't discount hands, because you think that villain would not have played them correctly. Instead, he called your 4bet IP and he probably has a very strong hand. If he is decent, he knows he can't call for set value and he knows that he should push AK preflop more often than AA or KK since he can use the fold equity and wants to see all 5 cards. So I think your reasons that he won't have AA, KK here are flawed. I think a push here has no fold equity and is basically spew with two cards to come. If you say he reraises people a little bigger when he thinks you are fos, he obviously has a hand here, because he didn't reraise you light, because he called your big raise. So I'm pretty sure he has a big pair here. JJ+.
So...

JJ: 6 combos
QQ: 6 combos
KK: 3 combos
AA: 3 combos.
18 combos overall.
You have 25% equity against JJ,QQ (not 30 or 33!), 12 against KK and 0.35 against AA.
So a push obviously isn't correct if he holds a pair. Only if he can hold AK, AQ in this spot and will lay it down, a push can be correct.