200NL AK 3b pot oop, river decision?

[DirteAA]

Villain is 27/18/3 over a solid sample. We were on a couple tables together and both tables I had been card dead, so I look very nitty. I don't have much personal experience with this player, just datamined hands.

Comments on flop/turn. Call river?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

<font color="black">Hero (SB): $200</font>
BB: $60
UTG: $219.95
CO: $199.20
BTN: $247.60

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $7</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $27</font>, BB folds, BTN calls $20

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($56) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $40</font>, BTN calls $40

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($136) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

<font color="black">River:</font> ($136) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $65</font>, Hero

[BGnight]

call i guess. Yuz getting good odds. I play it pretty much the same. If he bet turn I'd call and c/fold river.

[SharkSandwich]

I think it's a call. Definitely for this much.

KJ bets the Turn. AT and JT would be pretty much folding the flop.

So the only hand he's he's likely to have that beats you now is QJ.

So there's a good chance you're ahead, you've shown a lot of weakness on Turn/River making him think he can take the pot (which is the value in not betting the River). And you're completely priced into it, as strong as your hand is. I'd even call a bit of a larger bet.

Call, if he's got QJ so be it.

[MM_red33]

call. agree with above poster.

[kayfish77]

fold you dont beat anything... its a 3bet pot. like at best you're splitting. why does no one see this? like i understand its blind vs button but i dont think we beat a hell of a lot and the river really looks like it wants a call.

[R6MC]

I would have bet the turn pretty strong, if I get a call then I play the river cautiously. You could have possibly avoided this decision altogether

[JackAll]

[ QUOTE ]
fold you dont beat anything... its a 3bet pot. like at best you're splitting. why does no one see this? like i understand its blind vs button but i dont think we beat a hell of a lot and the river really looks like it wants a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is pretty close to accurate.

A basic range of JJ+/AK has us completely owned. Of course he has other hands, but quite a few of them own us also (KJ/JQ/44/55).

However I'm not sure villian "wants a call" on the river - it could be a block bet also and I think we should fold due to his hand range, but it's tough to do with these odds but if I'm playing well I would fold this.

[gimmetheloot]

lol fold plz. u guys calling burn money good.

[wdead]

dude there are like a million hands we beat here. 88, 99, 1010, 67, etc. I cant see how you guys possibly fold this. Villain never puts on AK and is prob value betting worse or bluffing something

[SharkSandwich]

I still don't see any logic from those who say fold here. Just throwing out "you have to beat here", "he wouldn't bet worse", "it's often a set". How about coming out with some that the action suggests?

What damn set? The only credible one is a rivered QQ.
And that and QJ are the only hands you should have to worry about.

And yes, bluffing with the underpair for half of the pot here is great given the number of people who seem to think this is a clear fold with a hand as strong as AK, with very little beating it. It's not even as if villain bets the full pot on the river and we have to think it over some. He's made it easy.

Again, throwing out "you're beat" when the action dictates that very few hands are ahead of you is just bad thinking. Not least when villains river action follows hero considerably underrepresenting his hand...