AK 1000NL

[Kermit]

Just curious what you guys think.

no read on villain, but he is pretty active (on three tables with him). I have only seen him show down a set (versus me) and a turned two pair with 79s (preflop was meh, but he made a good vb on the river that hand). So, while he is apprenty splashing around a little, he has only showed down strong hands afaik.

i stacked him earlier with a set over set -- he just called my cbet on a draw heavy board.

effective stacks a ~1800.

he raies from CO, BTN calls, I make it 150 w/ red AK, he calls and BTN folds.

Flop:

K 8 5 two hearts (pretty sure i have Ah)

I lead for 255 ( bet size okay?) into ~340, villain thinks for a short time and minraises.

i fold??

Kermit

[CopTHIS]

Folding is fine there I'd say, though it does seem weak at first. He will presumably open loads of hands from the CO and may call your 3-bet fairly lightly as you are fairly deep. But it's hard to imagine it's a pure bluff and if he has a draw then it's not the nut flush, probably not 6h7h for the small raise (but who knows). Many would 4-bet AA,KK 180bb deep, but he has position so maybe he wouldn't. He could easily have the same hand I guess but most people would probably just call with a K. Tough spot, just looks like the stack-a-donk line if he is giving you AA or AK (and hoping against KK of course).

It seems weak to fold I guess but it's hard to find a line that feels good there without some history. You also don't know how often he feels you squeeze PF.

[D.L.M.]

reraise ai. flop bet is gay. if you lead for the pot you could fold to a raise.

[Kermit]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding is fine there I'd say, though it does seem weak at first. He will presumably open loads of hands from the CO and may call your 3-bet fairly lightly as you are fairly deep. But it's hard to imagine it's a pure bluff and if he has a draw then it's not the nut flush, probably not 6h7h for the small raise (but who knows). Many would 4-bet AA,KK 180bb deep, but he has position so maybe he wouldn't. He could easily have the same hand I guess but most people would probably just call with a K. Tough spot, just looks like the stack-a-donk line if he is giving you AA or AK (and hoping against KK of course).

It seems weak to fold I guess but it's hard to find a line that feels good there without some history. You also don't know how often he feels you squeeze PF.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cop This: It was the first time i squeezed and third pot i had played with this villain.

DLM:

I appreciate your fine analysis. Could you please expand on why my flop bet is "gay"?

Should I bet more or less on the flop? I dont think instantly stacking off with 180BBs with TPTK (when its fairly obvious what type of hand i have) is necessarily a good idea. 100bbs and im in there.

Thanks kermit

[capodu]

your betting enough on the flop that a min raise like this will have to drag you in since it is only 255 to call into 595. If you had bet more on the flop you would have a better representation of where you stand like ~$300, then it would be easier to fold to a raise.

[Kermit]

[ QUOTE ]
your betting enough on the flop that a min raise like this will have to drag you in since it is only 255 to call into 595. If you had bet more on the flop you would have a better representation of where you stand like ~$300, then it would be easier to fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

i just feel like nearly potting the flop in a rr'd pot is overkill in this situation.

also, if he minraises 255, i think he would do the same to 300. no?


so its easier to fold for 300 into 650 than 255 for 595?

[blunty31]

I wouldnt mind checking the flop. Sure youre giving away some free draws but chances our youre also getting villian attatched to some weaker hands that you can milk on the turn while also keeping the villian off balance as to what you may have so he will be hesitant to reraise.

[capodu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
your betting enough on the flop that a min raise like this will have to drag you in since it is only 255 to call into 595. If you had bet more on the flop you would have a better representation of where you stand like ~$300, then it would be easier to fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

i just feel like nearly potting the flop in a rr'd pot is overkill in this situation.

also, if he minraises 255, i think he would do the same to 300. no?


so its easier to fold for 300 into 650 than 255 for 595?

[/ QUOTE ]

its not that it is easier to fold 300 for 650 it is that becasue you showed more weakness with your 255 bet it looks like you are scared of the king or even you have exactly what you have AK.

I really looks like he could have the exact same hand as you and is just testing the waters with his minraise. I would have to put in a 3rd raise and judge from there. With no reads these situations can be tricky.

[RiverDancer]

I imagine villain opened for $40 and you raised $110 to $150 PF. I think this will chase most people off 67sooted PF (although it's not out of the question). It's possible he could be calling here with 55 or 88 since stacks are deep and hitting a set could be profitable. If he had the same hand as you I would personally check/call down to the river in his spot, as raising the flop has little value (if you have AA he's broke, if you have anything worse he doesn't want to scare you off). Minraising a flush in this spot seems like a bad idea because the K on board lowers his fold equity and it becomes likely he will be facing a big reraise, making him have to stack off as a 2:1 dog.

Not sure where that leaves us, probably with a set, the same hand as you, or an unlikely bluff. I think a fold is prudent, although I'm very bad at making it. I think it's likely you are way behind or tied.