200NL FR Live - KK faces shove on flop

[cubase]

Visited my local casino last night for a little 200NL.

I post here because I play 25NL 6-max online at this point and some of the veterans here have said that live 200NL is akin to 25NL-50NL. I also realize there is a FR forum, but for all of the reasons mentioned above, I feel I'll do well to get my advice from you here. If you think otherwise, please suggest my best forum.

This is a $100-$200 fixed buy-in structure.

Villian is fairly new at the table... seems average looseness. Average amount of raising/limping (with the norm being the limp). Haven't seen him make any clear mistakes other than playing too loose and limping too much near the button. He's not shown down many hands except in unraised pots. We've not gotten involved in any important pots together.

He's been here long enough to probably notice that when I play a pot, I come in for a raise and that's about it. I've shown down very little.

I'm sitting at the table with approximately $1600. I had transferred from another table and naturally the folk were constantly eyeing my stack asking how long I had been there, etc.

Posting from memory obviously, so math might be slightly off.

Villian has about $250 behind.

Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

9 players.

BB posts $2.
SB (Hero) posts $1.
UTG calls $2.
UTG+1 calls $2.
UTG+2 calls $2.
MP calls $2.
MP+1 calls $2.
CO calls $2.
Button (villian) calls $2.
Hero raises to $23.

BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP calls, MP+1 folds, CO folds, Button calls.

Pot ~100.

Flop: (~$100.00) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero bets $75.00, folded to Button who raises all in.

What is my villian's range for shoving here (that he also limped in with on the button)?

I look over at my villian and he is clearly being very calm, not staring at me (mostly staring at my hands shuffling my chips). I look over at his neck and notice that his heart is trying to find a way out of one of his veins (his neck is pulsating extremely hard). As this has been a reliable casino tell for me (that the player believes he has the best hand). I add to this that the player is a young, maybe 20 tops and I find the tell even more reliable.

If we assume the tell is reliable, and that the player *believes* he has the best hand, how does that affect any ranges, if at all?

I ran various numbers through pokerstove, but before I respond with my precise thoughts, I need yours. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ocdscale]

I put him on TT+, 55, 22.
Limp + call preflop is usually a PP or SCs.
With ~175 more to you and a 425 pot, I call feeling good about it (even if you take JJ out of his range).

Responding to posters below, I don't think you see 34 here ever. I doubt you see ATo here either as well, as he would likely lead flop with that.
Given OP's reads, Villain feels 'very' good about his hand, don't think TPTK would give that kind of confidence, certainly not a bare OESD.

[ciki57]

409,560 games 3.610 secs 113,451 games/sec

Board: Tc 4d 2c
Dead:


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.240% 53.69% 01.20% 219913 4915.50 { KdKh }
Hand 1: 45.760% 45.11% 01.20% 184765 4915.50 { TT+, 44, 22, ATs, ATo }

I think this is pretty much his range if he doesnt get out of line.

You're getting 2,5:1 odds, so I guess this is probably a call.

[Sweir]

I probably call here but then I get stacked a lot in situations like these, lol.

2pair is pretty much impossible and he should be raising AA here 100%, aswell as TT (though he may call?). 55/22 are obv well within his range pf, however would he shove the flop on such a dry board, maybe not. I think that you could see JJ/QQ/TPGK's here quite a lot with the occasional random air, some sets, and maybe 34. Therefore I call.

[cubase]

I also like to point out that 3 people saw the flop with me. How does this affect things? Suppose he were the only caller. Does this change anything?

[Sweir]

[ QUOTE ]
I also like to point out that 3 people saw the flop with me. How does this affect things? Suppose he were the only caller. Does this change anything?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well your range should be tighter when cbetting multi-way so it shows more strength than if it were just HU. However the flop is so dry that you will be cbetting here with air a decent % of the time aswell.

[cubase]

Ok, so let's do some math (and please please, take out your calculator and verify I'm doing this right).

Villian has $250. After he calls my raise, he has $227. After he calls my $75 (before pushing the rest), he has $152.

$100 in pot + my $75 + his $75 = $250 in pot with $152 to call. I'm risking $152 to win $250 (not $152 to win $402, because we do not include my call as part of the winnings).

1.64:1 odds. My break even percentage is 37% (1/2.64).

Therefore I need to win at least 37% of the time to break even.

I believe my opponent believes he is winning. This does not mean that he has the winning hand, simply that he believes he can beat me. I do not put him on a bluff. I do not know, however, if he puts me on a bluff, and is simply excited about taking down the $175 already in the pot, or that he believes he is going to get paid off in a big way.

So what does my opponent put me on? This is probably a question I failed to ask myself (although it doesn't always matter since a lot of these guys simply look at their cards).

He puts me on an overpair, he believe his set wins.

He puts me on AT, KT, AT, JT, and believe his overpair/set crushes me.

He puts me on an underpair or a weaker T (and holds AT). I really don't buy this one. I think if he has AT he makes a crying call.

One thing I wish pokerstove allowed us to do is to assign a percentage chance we believe the opponent has the hand in question. For example, he might hold AA here, but he'd only play it this way 10% of the time.

I'm also the big stack and am a target. So, my raises are more likely to get smooth called by big pairs (I've already seen it happen, I ended up getting out of the pot, but a guy on my left smooth called with QQ in an effort to trap me. He ended up taking a big pot from my villian).

So first, my absolute tightest range for my opponent.

Hand 0: 56.162% 56.16% 00.00% 70056 0.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 43.838% 43.84% 00.00% 54684 0.00 { QQ-TT, 55, 22 }

Now, I'll include the unlikely AA,KK.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.703% 43.92% 01.79% 73044 2970.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 54.297% 52.51% 01.79% 87336 2970.00 { TT+, 55, 22 }

Now, let's include the very unlikely AT.

Board: Tc 5d 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.250% 54.00% 01.25% 128304 2970.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 44.750% 43.50% 01.25% 103356 2970.00 { TT+, 55, 22, ATs, ATo }

And finally some of the other weaker holdings.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.273% 60.47% 00.81% 222687 2970.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 38.727% 37.92% 00.81% 139653 2970.00 { TT+, 55, 22, ATs, KTs, 43s, ATo, KTo, 43o }

The above doesn't include any air holdings, but I think it's less than 5% that the opp has air and not at least a draw.

Here's one that is a little worse for me...
Board: Tc 5d 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.182% 30.91% 02.27% 40392 2970.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 66.818% 64.55% 02.27% 84348 2970.00 { QQ+, TT, 55, 22 }

Overall, with my BEP at 37% and none of the above ranges fairing me worse than 45% (except the last), this appears to be a clear call, though I'm not happy about it.

I really wish I had seen more cards from this guy.

In the actual hand, I folded. At the moment, without pokerstove and a calculator handy, I felt I would be looking at a set on this dry board too often to make it profitable to call with the little I knew about the opponent given that his body language exuberated with strength. Naturally I told myself I'd do the math when I got home.

I also considered calling to see his cards, take my beat if necessary, and then at least I'd have some information on my opponent. Two problems though. First, I knew I'd be leaving within an hour and wouldn't get to make use of that information. Two, I didn't see this player make enough mistakes to know if I could pry those chips back from him, even with him on my right.

Any final thoughts on this analysis? Is this basically a clear call? Math right, etc?

[Archon_Wing]

OOps.... nvm

[ocdscale]

[ QUOTE ]
$100 in pot + my $75 + his $75 = $250 in pot with $152 to call. I'm risking $152 to win $250 (not $152 to win $402, because we do not include my call as part of the winnings).

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? This can't be right.
You're not including villain's raise in your calculations. When you call, you stand to win that as well.

Calculations:
Villain starts with ~$250
On flop, there's $100 in the Pot and Villain has ~$227 behind.
He checks, you bet $75
Pot is now $100+75, he pushes all-in.
Pot is now $100+75+227
You have to call 227-75
You have to call ~150 to win ~400.

You only need 27%, easy call.

[cubase]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
$100 in pot + my $75 + his $75 = $250 in pot with $152 to call. I'm risking $152 to win $250 (not $152 to win $402, because we do not include my call as part of the winnings).

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? This can't be right.
You're not including villain's raise in your calculations. When you call, you stand to win that as well.

Calculations:
Villain starts with ~$250
On flop, there's $100 in the Pot and Villain has ~$227 behind.
He checks, you bet $75
Pot is now $100+75, he pushes all-in.
Pot is now $100+75+227
You have to call 227-75
You have to call ~150 to win ~400.

You only need 27%, easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm stupid. Thanks for the correction. I had not yet slept when I posted. Without any additional reads, this should be an easy call.