sexied on turn by LAG in big pot

[yourface]

villain is quite loose and pretty aggressive

Poker Room skin
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
3 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (3 players) hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">hero raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="#cc0000">BB 3-bets</font>, hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6SB, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, hero calls, SB folds.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4BB, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises</font>

I'm pretty sure we need to bet this turn to protect our hand from 6outers. do we call down the c/r?

anyone raise the flop?

[Gurravasa]

Is he doing this crazy play with a worse hand than 88 more than 17%? Thats the issue here. I often call this down with no reads, but I doubt that I win more than 17%. Most players aren't bold enough to do this as a pure bluff and I don't think a semi-bluff is very likely either. But with no read it's very hard to tell.

[jba]

seems like an easy value check on the turn. if it's not an easy fold it seems like an easy check let's put it that way. flop is close to a raise but I'm torn.

[yourface]

value check?

I didn't know this guy was capable of a move like this, and I can protect my hand from a 6 out draw with a turn bet.

it felt like an easy fold but now I'm not so sure.

[jba]

6 outer in this pot if you give him a free card when he would have folded (assuming he folds 100%) that is worth around .5 bet. if you check behind he is firing x rivers (or check calling stuff like AQ), assuming x&gt;.5 check is better. and you never fold the best hand and you never fold a 2 outer.

[Gurravasa]

jba, I think you're right about x&gt;0.5. How to act on a scary river like an ace after checking the turn? Do you bet/fold or check? I think I would check but maybe thats to weak?

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
seems like an easy value check on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. Against a LAG you probably have to call down, but paying two more bets to see the river here will really suck against even a LAG's three bet range. Also, because villain is a LAG you can expect a lot of bluffs on the riover when he misses. I am too lazy to do the math but I am sure that with a LAG he will bluff after a turn check enough to make up for any lost value on not betting the turn.

[Absolution]

If he puts you on a hand just like you have, given your pre-flop call, is his check a good play assuming he has something like JJ+? If you check through he just value bets every river. If he bets out you probably dump your hand (unless you're a showdown monkey like sethypooh21). He also gets the chance to check raise if you can't help but bet when checked to. It seems like he gets an extra bet out of you a lot of the time here if you're a thinking player.

[yourface]

[ QUOTE ]
If he puts you on a hand just like you have, given your pre-flop call, is his check a good play assuming he has something like JJ+? If you check through he just value bets every river. If he bets out you probably dump your hand (unless you're a showdown monkey like sethypooh21). He also gets the chance to check raise if you can't help but bet when checked to. It seems like he gets an extra bet out of you a lot of the time here if you're a thinking player.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno if his check is a good play. maybe it's good to do once so that I'll be more likely to give him free cards in the future when he has an unpaired hand in the same situation. I don't think he's thinking that far ahead though.

and I would definately not dump my hand to a turn bet on that card. I'm still ahead of a good part of his range, and I expect him to fire 2 barrels a lot.

[Raskolnikov47]

I was intrigued by the question: "is he doing this with worse hands than 88 more than 17% of the time?" I don't think this is the right % or perhaps just not the right question.

I assume your logic is as follows: You have $51 in the pot. If you call on the turn because you think he'd make this play with something worse than 88, I presume you are calling on the river. So you need to put in $12 for a chance to win $69 (his river bet and your two calls). So far, so good (17%).

But what kind of hand would make this play? We have 3 cards to a straight and two flush cards on the board. One possibility is that he has decided to take a very aggressive, tricky line with a draw. If he has a 5 and either of the flush draws or a pair and an open-ender, his idea is very attractive. Especially if he might make the play with a king as well.

I think you'd have a sense for whether this guy was the type of guy to make a play like this on a complete bluff (which seems extremely wild and crazy). Based on the Harrington-- everyone bluffs some % of the time-- logic, you might include a small probability of air but I don't think it affects the analysis much so I'll leave that out.

I don't think he is likely to make this play with a call-for-value type hand (pair that is worse than yours or high cards close to the nonpaired nuts.

So I think you can almost simplify this to three situations:

1. A small draw (open ended straight or flush draw)
2. A huge draw: small pair plus open ender, small pair plus flush, A5 suited for open ender and straight flush
3. A king

Given the size of the pot and the sheer number of possible draws/monster draws, you will have to call the river even if a draw card hits if you call the turn.

Villain's winning % under the three scenarios is:
1. roughly 20%
2. roughly 40%
3. Roughly 95%

I rarely have such a good read on someone (sadly) that I can say whether they are "the sort of person who does this much more with draws, monster draws, or made hands." If you are, you can think quite probabilistically about the outcome here.

The 17% number is clearly wrong since even if you are ahead now, he probably has either a 20 or 40% chance to win-- 30% is clearly too simple an average to pick but if we go with that, you need to be ahead now more like 25% of the time since ~7-8% of the time you will be ahead and then get sucked out on.

However, I expect that if your opponent is a good player like Miles who posts later in this thread, he recognizes that check raising you here is the strongest looking play he can make and playing draws strongly is an essential component of winning money in shorthanded. He would basically need to have a king type hand (maybe a higher pair or some crazy made hand) more than 75% of the time for your call down to be correct. I think a reasonably good player would make this play on a draw more than 25% of the time, so I think you need to call down here. But if you have some read on him, you might override that.

In spite of how speculative the final answer is, I think it's useful to have the 25% figure in mind because it shows how strong your read would have to be that he would "ONLY MAKE THIS WITH A BIG MADE HAND" for a laydown to be right, even assuming he would ONLY MAKE A SEMI-BLUFF and not the more desirable total bluff. Just the fact that he goes for a play like this suggests to me that he is the type of player who thinks about tricky plays. Therefore, I put him on at least a 25% chance of a draw. So call down.