3/6 I River teh Nuts, Should I Raise?

[Harv72b]

Early in this table session. UTG+1 is a typical small stakes player (22/4/1.1) over around 250 hands. Not horrible, but not particularly good based on what I've seen. MP1 is unknown, no hands on him.

My hand is obviously good on the river, but do I re-raise or coldcall hoping for the overcall?

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
8 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO folds, Hero calls, SB folds, BB checks.

Flop: (5.5SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4.75BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks.

River: (4.75BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
<font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 folds, Hero..?

[Allday Everyday]

I generally raise in this spot and other (easier) 3-handed spots where going for an over call is possible. It would be a rare MP1 who folded for another big bet back to him, and this is (usually) all you will gain from going for an overcall. Also, UTG is still allowed to call if we raise. That is, he will call two back to him some of the time anyway. Raising also 'reopens' the betting (to a greater extent) and seems to give you a chance to see one of the other players cap with a lesser hand or with the same hand and bring along the other guy with a set, etc. he can't lay down. Of course, some of the time we just call, the UTG will reraise for us, but I think us reraising is best overall. So I raise seeking the calls and perhaps more from the MP or UTG rather than calling to encourage a single call from UTG.

[BigBadBabar]

bus to 3town, they like their hands, someone could have a set and get it capped. just calling here is bad imo. also on the odd chance it's a chop and someone else has a set or 2 pair or something, you extract more from the dominated hand. maybe that's my o8 brain working.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
they like their hands

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't know if that's true, based on the way the flop &amp; turn played out.

[ProfessorBen]

When we raise, the most common scenario will be for UTG+1 to fold and MP1 to call, which would be no different from going for the overcall.

If we 3 town, we lose money when...
UTG+1 folds and we chop with MP1 (1/2 bet)
UTG+1 caps(chop) and MP1 folds his set/2p[If you had called, action likely would have been UTG+1 3bets, MP 1 calls, you cap, MP1 either calls or folds] (1/2-1 bet)
UTG+1 folds, and MP1 folds (1 bet)

If we 3 town, we gain money if...
UTG+1 is willing to cold call 2 bets.
UTG+1 or MP1 are willing to cap with a lesser hand.

3 towning seems to make more money, but it's close.

[goofball]

What the [censored] are you talking about? Of course raise.

[HoneyBadger]

I also don't see the dilemma here...raise? If you just call you expect to make 1 extra bet only, if you raise you expect to make 1 extra bet but possibly more, and very rarely 0, but in that case you'd prolly have made 0 anyway if you had just called.

[Harv72b]

Just as a general follow-up question for y'all, what hands (or ranges) would you put the villains on?

[HoneyBadger]

UTG+1 probably a queen. He bets to see if there's an ace, some callers, so now he's scared of the ace. But hey, on the turn nobody bets, maybe my queen is good after all, so I bet/(fold/call). Similar story for MP1, but maybe he has QT. A pair of 9s or Ts is also possible, rivering the set. And of course a KJ is possible.

[James.]

Harv,
Fwiw I think it's closer than everyone is saying. Some handranges are what will dictate the best play. It's probably best to raise, but I actually think it's semiclose. I'm on my blackberry right now. When I get back to the office I'll try to put some ranges together if someone hasn't done it.