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#1
04-10-2007, 12:22 PM
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Our PS winrates
Specifically comparing 3/6 to 5/10. I myself have certainly run well at 3/6 getting 2bb/100. But am running -1.5bb/100 over a smaller sample size at 5/10. While I can tell the competition is somewhat stronger at 5/10 I can not help but feel that I am only a marginal winner there who got some bad beats in the massive pots. Any other thoughts? Im beginning to think I should just stay at 3/6 for my mental health at least. Do other people here have strong sustained success at 5/10? I play a 24/17 style for what its worth, varying based on the table between 22/16 and 27/20.
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#2
04-10-2007, 01:18 PM
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Re: Our PS winrates
variance, this is real obvious, surprised u even need to post it, play for a long amount of time then check on stats.
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#3
04-10-2007, 01:43 PM
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Re: Our PS winrates
what is long?
people say: play 10k hands than post you stats her for review others say: play 100k to eliminate swings... I will post some datamined charts and i would really like to discuss: "if you can beat the game"
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#4
04-10-2007, 04:16 PM
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Re: Our PS winrates
[ QUOTE ]
what is long? people say: play 10k hands than post you stats her for review others say: play 100k to eliminate swings... I will post some datamined charts and i would really like to discuss: "if you can beat the game" [/ QUOTE ] You need 30,000 hands at a level before knowing your general winrate, and 100,000 hands at a level before knowing your specific winrate.
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#5
04-10-2007, 05:58 PM
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Re: Our PS winrates
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] what is long? people say: play 10k hands than post you stats her for review others say: play 100k to eliminate swings... I will post some datamined charts and i would really like to discuss: "if you can beat the game" [/ QUOTE ] You need 30,000 hands at a level before knowing your general winrate, and 100,000 hands at a level before knowing your specific winrate. [/ QUOTE ] Such a crock. Assume 18BB/100 standard deviation, which I understand is normal if you work it out right. Then over a 100,000 hand sample your standard error is 18/sqrt(1000) = 0.57 so with 95% confidence you know your winrate to within plus/minus 1.14BB/100 That is not particularly specific. I've said this before and I will say it again. You will never, never know your winrate. Just spend the money. Guy.
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#7
04-10-2007, 10:35 PM
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Re: Our PS winrates
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] what is long? people say: play 10k hands than post you stats her for review others say: play 100k to eliminate swings... I will post some datamined charts and i would really like to discuss: "if you can beat the game" [/ QUOTE ] You need 30,000 hands at a level before knowing your general winrate, and 100,000 hands at a level before knowing your specific winrate. [/ QUOTE ] Such a crock. Assume 18BB/100 standard deviation, which I understand is normal if you work it out right. Then over a 100,000 hand sample your standard error is 18/sqrt(1000) = 0.57 so with 95% confidence you know your winrate to within plus/minus 1.14BB/100 That is not particularly specific. I've said this before and I will say it again. You will never, never know your winrate. Just spend the money. Guy. [/ QUOTE ] good post 30K, 60K, 100K none of these i would consider long term. When you run good or bad it's very hard to get an idea over what should be considered running average.
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#8
04-10-2007, 11:46 PM
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Re: Our PS winrates
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] what is long? people say: play 10k hands than post you stats her for review others say: play 100k to eliminate swings... I will post some datamined charts and i would really like to discuss: "if you can beat the game" [/ QUOTE ] You need 30,000 hands at a level before knowing your general winrate, and 100,000 hands at a level before knowing your specific winrate. [/ QUOTE ] Such a crock. Assume 18BB/100 standard deviation, which I understand is normal if you work it out right. Then over a 100,000 hand sample your standard error is 18/sqrt(1000) = 0.57 so with 95% confidence you know your winrate to within plus/minus 1.14BB/100 That is not particularly specific. [/ QUOTE ] Guess it depends on what you mean by specific. BTW - if your winrate is 3BB/100 after 100,000 hands, your equation means that your true winrate is 2.43BB to 3.57BB. (Not 1.86BB to 4.14BB). To me, that's pretty specific.
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#9
04-10-2007, 01:46 PM
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Re: Our PS winrates
[ QUOTE ]
Specifically comparing 3/6 to 5/10. I myself have certainly run well at 3/6 getting 2bb/100. But am running -1.5bb/100 over a smaller sample size at 5/10. While I can tell the competition is somewhat stronger at 5/10 I can not help but feel that I am only a marginal winner there who got some bad beats in the massive pots. Any other thoughts? Im beginning to think I should just stay at 3/6 for my mental health at least. Do other people here have strong sustained success at 5/10? I play a 24/17 style for what its worth, varying based on the table between 22/16 and 27/20. [/ QUOTE ]In the past, I've found the psychological difference between 3/6 and 5/10 pretty daunting - is it possible that at 5/10 it is more difficult for you to see the chips as merely betting units?
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#10
04-10-2007, 03:07 PM
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Re: Our PS winrates
My winrate at 5/10 is about 1 over 60k hands. It was 2.2 over 35k. If I always played my best I'm pretty sure I could be at 2.5 or so. It is amazing how many pretty large mistakes I make because I'm either not focusing or because I'm tilting. I forget preflop action a couple times per 1k hands and end up donking AJ on like Q42 into a 3-bettor, or I 3-bet bluff the river or something. Really big mistakes, yet I'm still at 1.
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