50NL: Deepish 2 pair faces resistance

[Antinome]

20 hands in, no meaningful read on villian. I've only seen him show down two hands, both boats. He fastplayed one and slowplayed the other.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $98.55
CO: $60.55
Button: $49.25
SB: $121.70
BB: $39

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, 2 folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($4, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $2.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $11.5</font>, SB calls.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($27, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $20</font>, Hero ?

[Abelardo]

What an ugly card... I guess I call and reevaluate on the river.

[Antinome]

[ QUOTE ]
What an ugly card... I guess I call and reevaluate on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why call and reevaluate? 4 cards improve me and I hate at least 11. Am I calling to call a 35 dollar river bet if I don't get worse?

[Abelardo]

You're still ahead to some hands he might bet this way, I highly suspect pair+diamond ones and he should slow down on the river, I would not call a big bet but might consider a small one, also you're still a bit deep so if you fill up and he has something you might get payed nicely.

Edit: I guess you can fold on the turn but that looks a bit weak to me and basically you're telling him he can run over you.

[slickss]

I don't like calling. Either fold or raise.

- Fold because it is very likely that he is crushing you with a flush (my option).
- Raise because he doesn't have the flush and is either bluffing or has AT/TT or TPFD and tried to hide it on the flop and was planning to check-raise you on the turn, if the diamond hadn't hit. In this case the bet acts as both a blocker and to feel if you have a flush.

As you said, calling only leaves you with 4 outs, which is why I don't like it.

[Abelardo]

Yes raising seems reasonable, I can be a station sometimes, anyways I'm thinking about folding now but raising could be the way to go but with higher variance, I hate this being a bit deep, one of my initial thoughts was I would raise if I were 100BB deep or less.

[draw2aflush]

[ QUOTE ]
You're still ahead to some hands he might bet this way, I highly suspect pair+diamond ones and he should slow down on the river, I would not call a big bet but might consider a small one, also you're still a bit deep so if you fill up and he has something you might get payed nicely.

Edit: I guess you can fold on the turn but that looks a bit weak to me and basically you're telling him he can run over you.

[/ QUOTE ]





No offense, but calling this turn is horrible esp for the reasons you said. You said the villian slow down if we call i seriously doubt it. How often does a stack this size with only that much left behind check or bet small on the river? Not very often and call because if you catch a 4 outer you will get stacked is awful by itself, but you may be drawing dead.




Folding this turn is letting him run over you and that is good because next time you will have a hand and villian will pay you thinking you will fold like always and it also gives you a tight image so you may be able to make a move later.

Folding is not only good because we are probably beat, but also for meta game.

Sorry if i sounded cruel here i just strongly disagree with your post and maybe i am way off in my thinking and if i am please let me know.

[Check_The_Nuts]

I would def. at least call here, and I think raising is a decent option. I think the main problem with this hand is your UTG, and if I was villian I wouldn't expect a FD to be in your range very often.

With villian showing down so many big hands lately, I think its more likely he is bluffing.

[Antinome]

Alright, what I did is fold.

I didn't put him on a flush,

1. because the A was out there. I don't believe a flush draw calls me on the flop often without a draw to the nuts. Only K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] through K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] really makes sense.

2. And in that case, he's more confident about his hand and wants to suck me in, and bets a less.

So I think either AxK[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], AxQ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], AT (with or without a diamond), 88 or TT.

Against that range, I'm a 10:1 dog or a 3:1 favorite. Mix in the flushes and I'm worse. On balance, I find a fold here. Forr 100BB I push. Someone could work out the relative frequencies of these hands given my hand and the board, and I think it would be close.

The hand he actually had (the moron proudly showed) I never put him on. He had A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. He put me on AK (don't they always?) and felt he had out-turned me, but was worried about another diamond.

[spacetime]

Good for you, you have got yourself a legitimate moron to play with!

I am folding also, nh.