weird AK spot, FT 3/6

[earlytimes1]

FT 3/6, villain has seemed solid, table is generally TAG.

poster in CO

villain raises UTG+1, everyone including poster folds, I 3-bet AKo on the button, blinds fold, villain calls.

flop (8.5 sb) Jd Tc 8h

villain checks, I bet, he calls.

turn (5.25 bb) Jd Tc 8h Ad

villain checks, I bet, he C/R

I feel PF and flop are standard; what's our plan here?

I don't think I can fold getting an immediate 8.25-to-1, and 4.5-to-1 on a calldown, but what in a solid player's UTG+1 range am I beating here? I'm smoked by JJ, TT, KQ, AJ, AT, chopping with AK and ahead of only AQ; I don't believe a smaller pair would C/R this turn.

[sixsixtie]

I think I'm calling, check/calling.
expecting to see same hand or aq

[Mr. Orange]

I call down from here hoping to see AK (chop), AQ or some wierd bluff. Your probably behind but I can't fold. I'd expect to be up against 2 pair or better a lot here.

[earlytimes1]

ok, calling turn seems simple, which I did.

river (9.25 bb) Jd Tc 8h Ad Ac

villain checks. we have trips, but is our situation any different than it was on the turn? since we pulled ahead of the 2-pair hands, do we have a value bet here?

[Mr. Orange]

The river A changes things a bit. I think the choice between betting and checking is very close. Part of this depends how tricky the villain is here. If he's got a boat or straight and makes you for the 3 aces he might be trying to c/r you on the river. Then again, the boards pretty scary so going for c/r might a risky move on his part since it could be checked behind. He probably wouldn't try to c/r with a straight b/c you could have boated so I think I'm leaning towards a value bet here.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
we have trips, but is our situation any different than it was on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope. Check through & be thankful that either got tricky or got scared with KQ. You'll be called/check-raised by a better hand far more often than he'll call with AQ (or have done something kooky like raise in EP with JTs).

[Bob T.]

[ QUOTE ]
villain checks. we have trips, but is our situation any different than it was on the turn? since we pulled ahead of the 2-pair hands, do we have a value bet here?

[/ QUOTE ]

IF you get checkraised here, you are going to puke, then call. I know it, you know it, and UTG knows it. When you have position, you need to be a favorite, among the hands that your opponent is going to call with, to make a bet correct. I don't think that that is the case here, and I do think that there is a good chance that your opponent for some reason decided to get tricky here on the river, and is looking to checkraise you. I check, and hope for the best.

[Yoshi63]

Could villian maybe have 98d? Or even KTd/QTd?

The river decision intruiges me, and I can't decide what to do. But I haven't seen anyone consider that he might be getting tricky with a strong draw, hoping to catch Hero on a turn bluff. I'm not sure if those change your action any however.

[Grease]

On the turn, I'm not liking your hand against his range on the turn. What hand does he raise UTG with then C/C the flop with?

JJ, TT, AK, AQ, AJs, ATs, KQ?

I think you're calling hoping for a chop in all but one case. If he's solid, I think you're toast on the turn a lot of the time. I think if he had AK, he'd just donk the turn, but I could be wrong.

That said, as played, I really, really want to bet the river, but based on him being solid, I'd just check. He never has AK/AQ here, I think. More often than not, he'll C/R you again, and you'll be forced to call.

[Bob T.]

I think you have to call.

For all the likely hands you listed, I think you need to fold to the river bet.