playing 7 6o against AA or KK

renereal · #1 03-26-2007, 03:21 PM

Situation: I have 7 6o in a full ring game blinds are 50/100. im heads up with one opponent who is tight aggressive and im sure he has AA or KK we both have stacks of around 20k. Question: What do you feel the maximum bet i should call from him in order to break him with a straight or, two pair or trips?

alphatmw · #2 03-26-2007, 03:24 PM

do you have position on him?

renereal · #3 03-26-2007, 03:27 PM

Yes im in the button he is in middle posistion.

KipBond · #4 03-26-2007, 03:46 PM

I'll take a stab at this, even though it depends on the situation, and a lot of assumptions:

There's a ~10% chance you'll have the better hand on the flop He then has a ~20% chance of out-drawing you. Let's say he sucks real bad and can never get away from the aces when you have him beat. You are awesome, and can always get away from your hand when you are beat, but not when you get out-drawn of course.

So...

90% of the time, you'll be out what you called pre-flop.
8% of the time, you'll get all your money in with 80% chance to win, and win.
2% of the time, you'll get all your money in with 80% chance to win, and lose.

Just estimating the math, you can call 1/15 of your stack pre-flop and break-even in the long run. If he's better at getting away from being beat, then you'll have to call much less.

It'll be interesting to see how close I am to what the math geniuses come up with. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

alphatmw · #5 03-26-2007, 04:02 PM

where on earth did you get his 2% to outdraw from? 2 outs = 20%?

KipBond · #6 03-26-2007, 04:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
where on earth did you get his 2% to outdraw from? 2 outs = 20%?

[/ QUOTE ]
All of this is estimation. But, AA will have more than 2 outs. (e.g. the board can pair giving AA a higher 2 pair).

RichGambler · #7 03-28-2007, 09:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'll take a stab at this, even though it depends on the situation, and a lot of assumptions:

There's a ~10% chance you'll have the better hand on the flop He then has a ~20% chance of out-drawing you. Let's say he sucks real bad and can never get away from the aces when you have him beat. You are awesome, and can always get away from your hand when you are beat, but not when you get out-drawn of course.

So...

90% of the time, you'll be out what you called pre-flop.
8% of the time, you'll get all your money in with 80% chance to win, and win.
2% of the time, you'll get all your money in with 80% chance to win, and lose.

Just estimating the math, you can call 1/15 of your stack pre-flop and break-even in the long run. If he's better at getting away from being beat, then you'll have to call much less.

It'll be interesting to see how close I am to what the math geniuses come up with. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

10% of time time better hand then AA on flop? You must be nuts.

Trips and 2 pair are 5% of the time.
Do you even count A66 A55 A56? What do you do here? Can you put him on AA I doubt that. You will put him on AK and he will stack you like a noob. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

KipBond · #8 03-28-2007, 10:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There's a ~10% chance you'll have the better hand on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]10% of time time better hand then AA on flop? You must be nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously I'm not nearly as good at math as you. Care to show your work? I just estimated: HU 76o has a 20% chance of winning against AA going to the river. After the flop 60% of the cards are out, so I just said 10% (estimating).

So, yeah, how do you get 5% exactly?

Dov · #9 03-26-2007, 06:34 PM

Why do you believe he will go all in with you when he's crushed?

I think the outcomes where you have him in a position where he wants to get all in will be very few, and when they do, he will have a significant redraw.

I'm too lazy to do the math right now, but off the top of my head, I can't think of a flop you're gonna stack him with.

Now if you flop your monster and check behind on the flop, and he spikes an A on the turn, then you might get him to commit some chips. He'll still have a decent redraw, though.

renereal · #10 03-27-2007, 04:23 AM

I see so many players that have pocket AA or KK move in with a big bet on the flop. If i can get in with 1/30 of my stack preflop and catch staight pair with a straight draw i might be in the hunt to take all is chips and not pay much to do it and i can break him.