Sales of CDs and DVDs

Boris · #1 03-20-2007, 01:46 PM

Blog linky

HMV I guess is the British version of Barnes & Noble. The company claims that its CD and DVD sales will only decline by 26% and 17% respectively by the year 2010.

I think they are wildly optimistic.

Opinions?

Aloysius · #2 03-20-2007, 01:49 PM

From the link:

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On the positive side small declines in large markets usually mean massive growth in the new markets that are replacing them - in this case digital music and video.

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Right but this is not necessarily monetizeable...

26% is probably their top-range forecast but is also fairly significant decline (taking into account an already sizeable decline over past 5 years). Don't think it's wildly optimistic at all for CDs.

The DVD number is much more difficult to forecast imo. My guess is the number is not too far off but we will see a rapid acceleration in decline post 2010.

-Al

Full-Metall · #3 03-20-2007, 01:49 PM

I think they are wildly optimistic.

DLizzle · #4 03-20-2007, 01:53 PM

depends on a lot of things, I don't think they are too optimistic though, its less than 3 years, and it's not like tons of people that don't download music are gonna suddenly start in that time period. If a new technology comes out, then obviously its a whole different game.

Aloysius · #5 03-20-2007, 02:03 PM

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In the venture industry we get caught up in the inevitability of massive market disruption and these numbers are a reminder that even in a market as obviously doomed as CD sales there is still years to run.

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I used to work in venture and believe this is very true. I'm not very familiar with the music business, but work in TV and can tell you that people have been predicting the demise of Network TV since Michael Lewis' cover story in NYT Magazine in 2000.

A combination of aggressive growth rates (DVR penetration is nowhere near what analysts forecasted 6 years ago), public perception created by the cultural elite at newspapers and magazines, and frankly slow consumer adoption of new business models, tend to result in far too early forecasts of "the demise of a mass market industry due to technology paradigm shift".

-Al

Colt McCoy · #6 03-20-2007, 02:15 PM

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its less than 3 years, and it's not like tons of people that don't download music are gonna suddenly start in that time period.

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I don't think these numbers are too out of whack, but, uh, yeah i think we'll see "tons of people" start downloading that haven't.

Evan · #7 03-20-2007, 04:20 PM

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its less than 3 years, and it's not like tons of people that don't download music are gonna suddenly start in that time period.

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I don't think these numbers are too out of whack, but, uh, yeah i think we'll see "tons of people" start downloading that haven't.

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For a significant group of new people to jump on these technologies they're going to have to become brain dead simple. iTunes is close, Rhapsody/Napster are further away, torrents aren't even in the ballpark yet.

nyc999 · #8 03-20-2007, 05:51 PM

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its less than 3 years, and it's not like tons of people that don't download music are gonna suddenly start in that time period.

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I don't think these numbers are too out of whack, but, uh, yeah i think we'll see "tons of people" start downloading that haven't.

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For a significant group of new people to jump on these technologies they're going to have to become brain dead simple. iTunes is close, Rhapsody/Napster are further away, torrents aren't even in the ballpark yet.

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Even today, only 70-75% of Americans have Internet access. There is a significant portion of the population that wants nothing to do with it.

Separately, I see CDs dying before DVDs. DVD files are much larger.

DLizzle · #9 03-20-2007, 10:35 PM

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its less than 3 years, and it's not like tons of people that don't download music are gonna suddenly start in that time period.

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I don't think these numbers are too out of whack, but, uh, yeah i think we'll see "tons of people" start downloading that haven't.

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why do you think that? It's not like its getting easier to do, and most people with the desire to download music would have started already I would think.

As for CDs and DVDs becoming obsolete, I'm not familiar with upcoming technologies that would make you think this. Blu-Ray or whatever those are don't see to be catching on from what I have seen and heard, though it is limited. What else is coming out though?

Also, I do think that CDs will die much faster than DVDs.

Stagger_Lee · #10 03-20-2007, 11:25 PM

Sale of the discs will decrease - but not due to illegal downloads.

Pay-per-view streaming / whatever it gets called will rule the day and increase profit-per-movie as a lot of middle men get cut right out of the picture.

This is good for consumers, good for the studios, and horrible for all the middle-men and the economies they are involved in.

No reason music CD's wont go the same way - it has already started. The legal models that will be put in place by HMV's current business associates will be what kills sales, not piracy.