Bankroll swings... and misses.

[vowels]

I've played about 2100 games, mostly at $3.40 STTs, and have had a 30 and 50 buy-in bankroll downturn from peak during that time. My ROI hovers consistently between 10 to 15%. (15% before the 50 buy-in drop I'm currently in, 10% after.) I'm sure I'm tilting some of the money away in a game or two, playing small pocket pairs too aggressively, but for the most part I'm just getting bad beat. Is this normal? Should I expect one big bankroll drop every 1000 games or so, on average?

[Mingdu]

faq ... seems ok to me though

[Kevin8423]

Just curious, how many games had you played at 15% just to see how many games this 5% drop was over? If you were 15% over 1000 to 10% over 2100 thats a lot different from 15% over 1900 to 10% over 2100. Could be easier to see if you just are likely a 10% player or if you had a huge swing due to beats or poor play.

[vowels]

I was 15% through about 1800/1900 games. So that would indicate it's either bad luck or recent bad play, you're saying. I posted this thread to see if anyone would say, "Oh, a 50 buy-in drop, that has to be bad play. Most swings don't go outside 35," or something to that effect, so that I'd know it was my game and not just bad beats. Since no one seems that surprised by a 50 buy-in drop, and since I subjectively feel that I'm getting bad beat like crazy, I guess that's what I'll believe. Till I hit 100 anyway. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Jshuttlesworth]

just worry about ur ROI... you can't control swings (except by making ur ROI higher)

also u probably arent'y getting bad beat like crazy

[vowels]

"also u probably arent'y getting bad beat like crazy"

oh, if only...

[Kevin8423]

I would post hands. Almost every time a player has a really bad swing its their play behind it. You always get beats, and sure sometimes you get way more, but you can have devestating swings if you start to pick up bad habits that you don't notice. Clearly you were doing well for a while, so its likely you changed your play slightly or something like that. If thats the case, with beats added on top itll be even worse, so my advice would be to analyze plays that you think are standard, maybe even post some of them to make sure they really are what you should be doing. Either way you still are positive, but it would be nice to get back to 15%, thats a pretty large drop for 200-300 games so its worth looking into.

[Vasquez]

Read the FAQ there is a nice thread about your issue and software that simulates the probability of dropping 50 buys. in before the lock

[vowels]

Thanks. I'd downloaded the ROI Simulator a couple months back actually, and used it before posting this thread. I just had a hard time interpreting the results. If it says .1% next to a 50 buy-in drop, what's that telling me? That once out of every 1000 games I'll likely have a 50 buy-in drop? That seems too often to me.

[Kevin8423]

Yeah that sounds off, but I've never used them. Does it take your ROI into account or something? I don't see how it could be meaningful if it only simulates it for a player who is evenly matched with everyone else.