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#1
03-15-2007, 12:46 PM
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30/60 Stud Hi Flush
Typical aggressive 5-handed game, but no specific reads on the main villain here. 3-bet the river or just call, and is it close? Comments until then?
7 Card Stud High ($30/$60), Ante $5 (converter) 3rd Street - (0.83 SB) Seat 1: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises Seat 3: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in_folds Seat 4: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___completes___folds Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls___calls 4th Street - (6.17 SB) Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls 5th Street - (4.08 BB) Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets 6th Street - (6.08 BB) Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets River - (8.08 BB) Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] xx___raises Hero: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets___? 
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#3
03-15-2007, 01:20 PM
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Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
On 3rd you should reraise here as your standard play just because of the likelihood the T is stealing, and you're not that far behind split tens anyway.
On 4th you can value raise. You definitely don't want to always raise your flushes but here you have two big cards and straight potential. On the other hand the 8 is kind of looking like he has a big buried pair himself, and his leading into your board is somewhat strong, so calling is fine too. Once he calls 5th it looks like he has aces or a four flush, though he could also have two pair or a smaller pair like TT chasing. The river is a definite three bet, it's not close. He could have trips or aces up or kings up or a smaller flush. The fact that you hold two eights make it especially unlikely he has a boat. The main thing I would be afraid of is a bigger flush, but you will see the various holdings you beat a lot more often I think, especially since the 3rd street play is fairly unsual for a flush.
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#4
03-15-2007, 01:31 PM
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Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
[ QUOTE ]
On 3rd you should reraise here as your standard play just because of the likelihood the T is stealing, and you're not that far behind split tens anyway. [/ QUOTE ] This makes no sense, inasmuch as the T has already folded to the villain's 3-bet before action comes back to the hero.
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#5
03-15-2007, 01:54 PM
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Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] On 3rd you should reraise here as your standard play just because of the likelihood the T is stealing, and you're not that far behind split tens anyway. [/ QUOTE ] This makes no sense, inasmuch as the T has already folded to the villain's 3-bet before action comes back to the hero. [/ QUOTE ] I think he means the first time around when hero just calls. I don't mind the call, but I think with either 2 overcards instead of 1 or the A showing a reraise is a good play...he could very well be stealing with all the other low trash cards showing. I like a raise on 4th. on the river i think a 3 bet is ok. really only worried about an AK flush I think. Could be a boat, but he often will have tripped up or thinks his K flush is best or he has a mediocre hand and wants you to fold hoping you just have the Qs and a busted flush draw.
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#6
03-16-2007, 12:44 AM
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Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
What Poorlawyer said.
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#7
03-16-2007, 02:05 AM
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Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
Easy three bet. I don't think he was just calling with anything that beat Qs up along the way, so I think it is extremely unlikely he filled here.
He needs the A spades to beat you here. Assuming a flush, he has 3 of the remaining 11 spades in the hole (He has the ace about 30% of the time). So it is about 70/30 you win even when he makes a flush. You are laying 2-1 on the 3 bet (67/33). So you have an overlay, even if you call and lose 100% of the time whenever he 4 bets. Given that he could also be raising many other lower non-flush hands (and maybe a few funky full houses) you have an even bigger overlay. I would only not raise if you were playing 'higher' on short money, and maybe wouldn't want the variance, but other than that, pop it one more time. Edit: I'm going to argue against myself here. In pure math, he is 30/70 not to have the ace. In reality he is much more likely to re-raise a three flush holding the ace. I'm not sure we have an easy three bet given that thought. I still three bet it though.
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#8
03-16-2007, 04:25 AM
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Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
"Edit: I'm going to argue against myself here. In pure math, he is 30/70 not to have the ace. In reality he is much more likely to re-raise a three flush holding the ace. I'm not sure we have an easy three bet given that thought."
This is very important to the analysis. In short, on 3rd street it is unlikely that he has a 3-flush. His most likely hand is a big pair. However, after his river raise, his most likely hand is a flush, and if he has the flush, he is quite likely to have the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] BECAUSE of his third street play. Those who are saying it is a clear 3-bet are not thinking about these important details. The decision is quite close IMO.
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#9
03-15-2007, 01:25 PM
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Re: 30/60 Stud Hi Flush
Hmmmm...this is interesting.
I'm going to assume that villain in this hand would not 3-bet the BI unless he had a buried pair bigger than the Ts that Seat 4 is representing, or at least had Ax spades. (Personally, I would not 3-bet the latter, but I know some players would.) Subsequently, given villain's actions on 4th and 5th streets, I think we can rule out him having buried Ks and buried Js, and since you catch Qs on 5th and 6th, it makes it highly unlikely that villain has buried Qs. Therefore, by the time you get to the river, I think villain's most likely hands (in order) are either As over, a spade flush (probably AK high), or trips (presumably trip As). IMO it's a close call as to whether you 3-bet the river or just call, but since you beat two of his most likely hands, I think you 3-bet it.
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