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#1
03-12-2007, 03:40 AM
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25/50 Straight on 3flusher Turn/River help
I have no read on villain. I don't play on stars much. I think this is kinda interesting. Talk to me.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $50 BB (7 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter MP1 ($4950) MP2 ($6413) CO ($9346) Hero ($6266) SB ($1075) BB ($5000) UTG ($5000) Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $200</font>, CO calls $200, Hero calls $200, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>. Flop: ($675) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $450</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1500</font>, MP2 folds, CO calls $1050. Turn: ($3675) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> CO checks, HERO... River action to come. 
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#2
03-12-2007, 03:51 AM
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Re: 25/50 Straight on 3flusher Turn/River help
Real weird spot because of the stack sizes. You don't want to check because there are a lot of [censored] river cards that can fall and the pot is big. But if you bet turn, I doubt you'll get action from any worse hands other than maybe a set. This is pretty read dependant, but I think I get my money in on the turn a lot here.
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#3
03-12-2007, 04:40 AM
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Re: 25/50 Straight on 3flusher Turn/River help
agree w/ AK87. i think that w/ big fd in his spot like KQ QJ, Ax spades or any sd, fd combo he gets it AI on flop here. I think he is either calling flop and planning to c/r AI turn or c/f if you bet again. i dont think he has you beat here but i think the spade might be a bad freeze card. I think if turn comes 2d he would c/r AI a good % given pot and stack size. I'd lean toward bet turn and get it AI.
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#4
03-12-2007, 06:25 AM
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Re: 25/50 Straight on 3flusher Turn/River help
why would any flush draw want to get it in on the flop here? theyre not against the preflop raiser, theyre against another caller, and he's never folding to a shove with whatever he has given the action so far.
also, for villain to call the flop oop, he either has to have a big hand, or a draw to a better hand than the flop nuts (which obviously is what you have) or not believe you and have some kind of top pair hand or 99/88 or something. The latter seems pretty unlikely, and I doubt you get much action against a set on this turn if he's any good (of course he may not be any good, to bet-call this flop). I check behind and get some money in on a blank river. dont worry too much about being bluffed, sets will rarely bluff river if its a 4-flush that doesnt pair the board.
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#5
03-12-2007, 11:43 AM
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Re: 25/50 Straight on 3flusher Turn/River help
If he hit his set he has 10 outs, if he has the flush draw he has 10 outs. If he is ahead he would probably bet and not risk you checking and improving. If he has 7s8s of 6s7s like you have) he would probably check and if he hit his set, he would probably bet.
You are most likely ahead and I am pretty sure he has 9 outs. At stated in the book of sklansky you should make a consider the probability you are ahead/behind. If you are ahead you can push all-in and make him fold but you should not do that, you should bet at leats $1275 here.... all above $1275 is proportionally a profit of 60% on the invested bet size. If we assume you are ahead here often enough you can bet about $2700 and fold a scary river... If you play it this way you will earn approximately $900 on average.... Betting will earn you approx. $1700 more in the long run than checking and betting will earn approx.$900 more on average than PUSHING .... But the safest way here is to just push all-in because you don't know what his outs are. He has 17 scare cards... You have to bet so much to avoid a river bluff that a PUSH is a good option...
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#6
03-12-2007, 12:02 PM
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Re: 25/50 Straight on 3flusher Turn/River help
id just push. dont wanna give that many free cards and if he has a flush now, so what. our plan is to check here and call a push on a blank right? So if we are paying off a flush ne ways...lets not give him a free draw on his whole range.
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#10
03-12-2007, 12:55 PM
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Re: 25/50 Straight on 3flusher Turn/River help
[ QUOTE ]
if he has a flush now, so what. [/ QUOTE ] huh? If he has a flush we get 4500 more in drawing dead. Saying so what is retarded. Also (not saying I want to do this) why do you think that you have to call shove's when you check back the turn? What hands are going to push that aren't flushes that get to the river with us? QJ maybe? I think youll see most hands bet about 2-2.5k here, not push. I think I like betting 2k (and calling AI) on the turn better then shoving if the villian is really bad. If they aren't as bad I like shoving to represent something like pair + A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hoping to get action from a set. I think I check a lot though.
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