OK to fold this turn? 88 OTB.

[Donkey Kong]

Villain is a regular at UB. Seems solid, 27/16/2.3 over 450 hands.
The darn converter aint working for me, so I'll just post it like this.
UB 4 handed fixed limit $1/2.

Donkey Kong has 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Preflop:
1 fold, Donkey Kong raises, SB folds, BB calls. (4.5 SB)

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
BB bets, Donkey kong raises, BB 3-bets, Donkey Kong calls (10,5 SB)

Turn: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
BB bets, Donkey Kong ??

[Allday Everyday]

I think preflop is good.

I think raisng that flop is usually an error. I think you should just go into call down mode with your good pair and flush draw. In the 4-handed game I would often take this to SD UI just calling down.

As played, I'm not so sure I would fold this. The pot is now quite decent. I think a decent amount of the time you are good. A lot of the times you aren't ahead, I think you have outs to a better hand (flush or set). I think my decision would depend on my read on the villain, his mood, your image, the atmosphere of the 4-handed game etc.

[Donkey Kong]

I think these kinds of situations are very tricky and really depends on the opposition. Playing against a weak-tight and getting this sort of action usually means you're screwed and that you're at best drawing to the flush outs. I believe the same line of reasoning would apply if you're up against a loose passive. In these instances I probably wouldnt have the odds to call the turn as I'd have to discount the flush outs somewhat as villain might well have A 9-Ks or a made flush. Calling down is expensive, and I suspect it might be a leak to systematically call down. You're investing two more BBs to possibly win a 9BB pot.

I'm not really good at these calculations, so if anyone knows a thread or would like to do some math that would be appreciated.

When you play tougher opponents its getting harder. In this particular instance I'd been stealing blinds a lot, and villain was defending often. He often released on the flop, and he had folded to flop raises. I do not think raising the flop is necessarily a mistake. You might be raising for value, and you might buy a free card to outdraw him and get to a cheap showdown. Getting 3-bet wasnt part of my plan, and it made me have to consider his motives.
- Did he make a flush already - in which case I'm toast.
- Did he hit top pair and is trying to protect his hand/ stay in charge/get money into the pot while he's ahead?
- Did he get a high flush draw?
- Did he hit a baby set?
- Is he bluffraising?

I'm sure there are a lot of other possible scenarios as well.

With all these thoughts in mind, do I believe I'm good often enough to call down against a fairly tough opponent?

I dont think so (but I dont have the numbers figured out).
[img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[swong4444]

I'm not a Stove expert, but here's some numbers.

1. Against any Ace, you have about 39% equity
Board: As 6s 4s
equity win tie pots won pots tie
Hand 0: 61.315% 61.29% 00.02% 80100 27.00 { A2s+, A2o+ }
Hand 1: 38.685% 38.66% 00.02% 50526 27.00 { 8c8s }

2. Against KsX, you have about 50% equity
Board: As 6s 4s
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.697% 49.70% 00.00% 492 0.00 { KsTd }
Hand 1: 50.303% 50.30% 00.00% 498 0.00 { 8c8s }

3. Against XsYs, you have about 2% equity (running 8's)

To find your total equity, you have to weight the above numbers by the # of combos. I'm not good enough with PokerStove to figure out the exact number.

If you don't raise the flop, then there will be 5SB in the pot. It will cost you 2.5BB to showdown, and you will win a net of 4.5BB. So, you need about 35% equity to make calling down correct. Judging from the above numbers, I think you are usually good. It's really unintuitive, because your hand doesn't seem that strong, but your flush draw is live enough.

Also, my "fold to river king" statement made no sense. I was posting in a hurry before leaving for work.

[Donkey Kong]

OK, thanks for those number. I'm still not convinced that we want to call down though.
If you look at the numbers when the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] falls on the turn, your equity against Ax drops dramatically (22%). Against KsX you're in better shape (70%), while vs a made flush you're now dead.
I agree we have to call on the flop, but our estimated equity drops as I think its still more likely we're behind than in front with the turn card.

The only reasonable hands we're ahead of are KsX, QsX, and the ones we're drawing live to are flopped sets and Ax with a non-spade kicker or a spade kicker lower than 8 (and of course possible overpairs to ours without a spade).

It just seems we're in a worse position on the turn, so I'm still inclined to fold.

We cant base our decision all the way to the river on our estimated equity on the flop, can we? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[swong4444]

[ QUOTE ]
We cant base our decision all the way to the river on our estimated equity on the flop, can we? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
No, you are definitely right about that. You shouldn't decide on the flop if you should just call down.

But, you can compare the EV of folding to calling down in making your decision. If the EV(calling down) > 0, then folding can't be correct.

On the turn, folding the best hand or a live flush draw would be a mistake. The pot is bigger and it costs less to call down. I can't do any maths right now, though.

[djmeehan]

Remember you are on button so BB is going to give you less credit for a real hand. It would help to know how vigorously this guy likes to defend his blind and how often you are raising his blind. If you have been beating on his blind or he fanatically defends it than you can discount the strength of his hand here. Overall, I think your hand is either currently good here or you have a live draw. I'm paying this off to river.

I won't be surprised when we get to the river that he turns over the K or Q high flush draw.

[swong4444]

I wouldn't raise the flop. You have enough equity to calldown hoping he is betting a flush draw that doesn't come or an ace that gets flushed. I also would fold if the river was a king.

[cdlarmore]

I dont raise this flop, if u get 3 bet your left wondering whether u even have any outs...
I think your better off calling flop and turn bet, and prob the river....

thats just how i play er though, i am interested to see what the rest of the posts will say

[Guruman]

I'd tend to cap that flop, as tag types in a fourhanded game can have any scared non [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] pair or pp there, or they can have a pure flush draw, but rarely both the way that you do. If its an ace then so be it, but I don't tend to see aces play this way (they like to checkraise).


given that you called, don't ever fold. lots of action on mono flops = scared one pair hand a lot. Sometimes its a made flush. Usually its 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or some crap.

No its not ok to fold here.

your flush draw has to be dead and you have to be behind to an ace here to make the fold. This means that he has to specifically have Ax,9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]-K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] more than 90ish % here. Given the pf and flop action - uh, no.

nope.

no.