cricket world cup 2007

[partykid123]

anyone planning to bet on cricket world cup its goin to start on march 13 .

i am goin to bet at greek but any other book out there that has lines for cricket wc and is open to us players ??

and what is the best option to deposit at TheGreek .

[cboevey]

Maybe betfair?

Long analysis below.
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I'm taking a quite a large position against South Africa to win. Any team that has a racial quota is almost never going to pick their best team. In this instance Loots Bosman, Robin Peterson, Charl Langeveldt and Justin Ontong would not be in the team if selected on merit.

The top order batsman have been erratic at best and the two main bowlers (Pollock and Ntini) have not been rested for some time and looked jaded in their last few ODIs. After their narrow escape against Ireland, I don't see them making it past the semis.

The most value I believe lies in New Zealand due to their recent form (position taken before their loss to Bangladesh in the warmups although I still feel comfortable) and having the most dynamic and thinking captain in the game. Similarly England has had a recent run of form in Australia. Australia can not be ruled out, even without Brett Lee as their main bowler, they have some of the best and most consistent batsmen in the world. Although they got whitewashed by New Zealand, it was not due to a lack of run-scoring.

This leaves the West Indies, Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan as potentials. Although the West Indies have home ground advantage, I think their both their bowling and batting have left something to be desired for quite a while now. I don't see them beating any of my top three. Sri Lanka relies to heavily on Murily as a game winner. Their batting line-up is not comparable to the top teams. Any decent batting team like Australia would be heavy favourites in a game against them. Indias performance in South Africa was very poor. They have not got the bowlers and it has been a while since Tendulkar has shone with the bat against any decent opposition. Pakistan is crippled with out Akhtar and Asif.

I also see slight value in Bangladesh winning their group.
I feel that Bangladesh have improved significantly in the past few years and their win against New Zealand in the warm-ups shows how seriously they are taking this world cup. Although I don't expect them to win, I think the line does not reflect their ability to cause an upset.

I haven't done enough research to look at individual games.

In summary:

New Zealand wins +4.0u
England wins +3.1u
Australia wins +2.6u
South Africa wins -17.48u
Any other team wins -7.4u

cboevey

[dennison]

I think you're discounting some far too swiftly. Here are my final 4:

India. The squad that faced South Africa has changed drastically, with players coming back from injury and old hands being replaced by young in-form talent. Ganguly's return to the side has been huge. I'm not sure where you draw your analysis from, this side is very well represented in both batting and bowling departments. Uthappa will provide an explosive start, with either Sehwag or Ganguly, followed by Yuvraj, Dravid, Dhoni, who are all capable of winning matches on their own. This is to mention nothing of Tendulkar, who contrary to your comments has indeed found a vein of form including a century against the West Indies, and his class is certainly not questioned. A bowling attack featuring Khan, Agarkar, Sreesanth, Kumble and Harbhajan Singh surely has to feature amongst the tournaments most potent. India even have strength in depth through Pathan, Gambhir, Karthik. Their weakness however will be their fielding -- too many old players and not enough athletes may be their undoing. Still, while Australia are clear favourites to lift the trophy, I would regard India in second.

Sri Lanka. Batting hands may be old but they boast an extremely potent bowling attack, through Muralitharan, Vaas, Malinga.

Australia, no surprise here. I wonder if they were playing possum in NZ or if injury and exhaustion were a factor, but in any case, they will have a full squad minus Brett Lee. They boast superb batsmen, it's just a case of whether or not their bowlers perform.

I don't mind your South Africa picks. Even further, Pollock is a spent force and their only true matchwinners are Gibbs and Kallis, who seem to have a tendency to crumble in big matches. NZ are my fourth pick, they bat very deep and have true all-rounders.

As for the rest,
Despite England's better performances of late, this World Cup has come too soon for them. Pakistan's bowling is in shambles after stupidity on the part of 2 key players, coupled with the loss of Razzaq. West Indies are a quality side but are dogged by inconsistency -- they will have to get it right from day 1 against Pakistan to stand a chance.

Bangladesh may cause an upset, but they certainly won't cause two. I'm not sure how you see value here at +2831. We may see value in underdogs after the tournament begins, even in non-Test playing nations, but I just can't see any value here.

My wager:
India to win the World Cup (+897) - 1 unit

[brandysbich]

Not enough credit being given to south africa, they are number one in the world but anybody (even me being a south african) will admit that the aussies should be there.

They walked over india and pakistan without even needing to play decent cricket, which they didnt. They have been using a new attacking style of cricket lately which has been excellent to watch when it comes off (similar to that of the aussies) as apposed to their previous more conservative style.

The key to winning the world cup for south africa is for players like Smith, Gibbs, Kallis and Boucher to step up. How you can say kallis doesnt perform in big games is beyond me. Even if just 2 of these guys can play to their potential in a match I can't see another side besides the aussies standing a chance against us (possibly the windies as well). The fact that there isnt too much variation in our bowling and us not having a decent spinner is gonna hurt us, but our batting order is strong enough to chase ANY target.

My opinion is obviously bias and the fact that we are number one in the world is gonna damage any value on placing a bet on SA. The world cup will be won by either the aussies, SA or the windies.

Aussies>SA>>>>windies

GO PROTEAS!!!

[dennison]

Didn't get my pick in last night so will exclude it from the record. No real bets available yet while the Test nations thrash the Associate ones.

Kenya (-426) v Canada
Battle of the minnows. Neither will progress past the group stage, nor will they be expected to. Bragging rights at stake, but little else. Canada had performed well in their own tournament recently but their team consisting of foreign expatriates will have nothing to play for. Kenya will harbour hopes of upsetting one of the test nations, with England being their only chance, even though it is an outside one, and come into this match with momentum, having lost by just 21 runs to the West Indies and beaten a competent Netherlands side. Peter Ongondo is probably the best new-ball bowler outside of the Test sides, so expect him to dismantle the aging "Canadians".

Kenya -426 bet 4.26 units to win 1 unit

Australia (-10000) vs Scotland
Bridejumper. Put your entire bankroll on it and thank me for the 1%. Scotland will not win this game if they play it 1000 times.

[dennison]

Kenya -426 bet 4.26 units to win 1 unit <font color="green">WIN </font>
comfortable 7 wicket win. It is going to be interesting to see how the Kenyans handle a potent bowling attack later in the tournament.

YTD 1-0-0, +1 unit

Bridgejumper is also a winner, hope you got in on it.

[MyPetTurtle]

Cool thread. Funny about your tip on Aus at 1.26 to defend 322 against the Windies, cboevy. I put $2,500 on Aus at those odds the moment I saw the line. Easy money [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Does anyone else really like Sri Lanka at 1.59 against the West Indies tonight?

[cboevey]

Barring a batting collapse, Sri Lanka should walk this.

[cboevey]

Currently West Indies need 357 to win against South Africa. Line is 1.08 now. See my post above (West Indies vs Australia) as to why I put the true odds at less than 1 percent. Oh add the fact that before this game the highest score at this ground was 304ish.

[MyPetTurtle]

Good spot again boevy, although I think WI's chances were slightly higher because South Africa have been conceding some large totals. I think they were 1-2.5% to chase 357.

I put 2k on South Africa at 1.12 a few overs into the Windies' innings. The Windies then had another good over and the line was 1.21, even though WI still needed something ridiculous like 7.4 runs per over. I wanted to put another 2k on SA at 1.21 but couldn't get through to Betfair on the phone in time.

Whenever I try to bet on an in-play market, I get the following error message: "Our software suggests that you are currently present in Australia. We are very sorry, but as a result of Australian Federal Law, users who are present in Australia are not allowed to place a bet via the Internet on this sport, when the market is in-play."

Is there anyway I can get around this? Using the phone is too inconvenient and slow.