|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
High variance situation: Gutter & FD vs. LAG
This hand just came up and I'm having difficulty deciding whether I like my line or not.
Background: Villan is pretty loose aggressive, but nothing crazy. Stats: 33/19/3+ My Stats: 21/16/3.5 (not too laggy, but I was card dead for a bit) Raise the button, standard. Cont. bet on a decent flop, standard. His raise here seemed to be a hand definer. I figured him for something like A9, AJ, maybe even getting cute with an 89. From his play, I'm pretty sure he 3 bets me with AK, AQ, 10s. 7s are another possible hand, but I think he'd 3 bet with them at least 50% of the time. I decide that this is a great spot to represent AK or even A10 and make a big raise. This is where it gets interesting. Now, I have to give him credit for a hand. Throughout the hand, I had him on just a big A. A flush draw is possible, but it seems to me like he's overplaying a big A. 77 does however concern me at this point. What is your opinion of my line on this hand and what is my move now? Can I give myself 13 clean outs? Am I justified in calling given his range, or would this be complete chip spewage?! I'll post results and thoughts after some responses. Thanks guys! Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game 5 Players LegoPoker Hand Converter <font color="black">Stack Sizes</font> CO: $143.90 Hero (BTN): $154.15 SB: $103.15 BB: $99 UTG: $92.50 <font color="black">Preflop:</font> 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($1.5, 5 players) UTG folds, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.50</font>, SB calls $3, BB folds <font color="black">Flop:</font> 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($8, 2 players) SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $5</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $13</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $38</font>, <font color="red">SB raises all in to $100.15</font> |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: High variance situation: Gutter & FD vs. LAG
Well since you want some fold equity to go along with this hand I think your 3-bet should be more, maybe to like 50-55 so it's easier for you to call a shove.
Oh - and you only have 12 clean outs, you can't count your gutshot card twice. |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: High variance situation: Gutter & FD vs. LAG
so Ax diamonds is not a worry at all. I have an identical hand play out the other day and the guy had top pair with four diamonds, against my oesfd.
|
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: High variance situation: Gutter & FD vs. LAG
I might just call the raise on the flop here. but in all honesty im not sure if our diamonds are live here. he could have a hand like Ax diamonds. this seems like a tough one imo.
|
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: High variance situation: Gutter & FD vs. LAG
Yeah I make my 3-bet bigger or just shove. I kind of like a shove here because it doesn't let him try a 4-bet AI w/ a bigger FD.
|
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: High variance situation: Gutter & FD vs. LAG
Against 77 this is a call, as well as A7/AT which I would put in his range running at 33 vpip... You could easily have 13 clean outs (minus the redraw) or you could be completely dominated.
It looks like a marginal situation, especially if villain could be shoving with any two broadway diamonds equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 33.737% 33.56% 00.18% 9634 52.00 { 8d6d } Hand 1: 66.263% 66.08% 00.18% 18972 52.00 { 77, AdJd, ATs, Ad9d, Ad7d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, ATo, A7o, 9s8h } At 33% equity you are still priced in to call. |
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Re: High variance situation: Gutter & FD vs. LAG
bump
|
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Re: High variance situation: Gutter & FD vs. LAG
I agree Axd should definately be a concern.
|
#9
|
|||
|
|||
Re: High variance situation: Gutter & FD vs. LAG
call, i estimate we are something like 40% to win (i pull numbers out of my butt) to win against his range and we are getting the right price to call from the pot.
|
#10
|
|||
|
|||
Re: High variance situation: Gutter & FD vs. LAG
Rest of hand played out as follows.
Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game 5 Players LegoPoker Hand Converter <font color="black">Stack Sizes</font> CO: $143.90 Hero (BTN): $154.15 SB: $103.15 BB: $99 UTG: $92.50 <font color="black">Preflop:</font> 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($1.5, 5 players) UTG folds, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.50</font>, SB calls $3, BB folds <font color="black">Flop:</font> 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($8, 2 players) SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $5</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $13</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $38</font>, <font color="red">SB raises all in to $100.15</font>, Hero calls $62.15 <font color="black">Turn:</font> 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] ($208.3, 2 players) No action <font color="black">River:</font> 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] ($208.3, 2 players) No action Seat 3: AL18AL (small blind) showed [Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] and lost with two pair, Aces and Queens In hindsight, I think that either making my 3 bet something like $52 to $55 or just 3 bet shoving would have been better because it takes away my opponent's fold equity as well as usually forces a bigger flush draw (unless Adxd) out of the pot. |
|
|