|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
AQs late in party 300k
Villain has been pretty tight, not super rocky or anything but I haven't seen him show down any bad hands. I've been splashing around a little but nothing crazy.
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t12000 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) MP1 (t74903) Hero (t211924) CO (t186676) Button (t8348) SB (t363864) BB (t243451) UTG (t167018) UTG+1 (t147762) Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t30000</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls [t243251] , Hero? (180k to me) |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: AQs late in party 300k
Hero folds. He's not shoving AJ here with the read you've given anywhere near often enough for this to be +EV. I think his range is TT+/AK and the odds aren't there.
|
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: AQs late in party 300k
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.539% 28.53% 13.01% 64484700 29404230.00 { AQs+ } Hand 1: 58.461% 45.45% 13.01% 102730968 29404230.00 { TT, AKs, AKo } Hero is getting 1.6:1 pot odds, with 1.4:1 odds vs this range. I think you can say that KK/AA is a smaller part of his range most of the time as well...so oddswise, this looks like a call to me against that range. |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: AQs late in party 300k
Soulman is JJ/QQ included in your calculations there? the TT doesn't have a + after it.
|
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: AQs late in party 300k
Bond, lol no it isn't. Would probably to you know, read the numbers before I post them :/
equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 61.327% 54.93% 06.40% 259606776 30223314.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo } Hand 1: 38.673% 32.28% 06.40% 152542500 30223314.00 { AQs+ } I.e. exactly 1.6:1, meaning pot odds = odds. Gah...given that, I probably fold since I'm so insanely +EV vs the field (...). |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: AQs late in party 300k
With 15BB still left you can afford to fold this I think, borderline.
|
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Re: AQs late in party 300k
I think we can put 99 into his range and with the slight possibility of a cheeky resteal we can say calling would be +EV. However, for me, this is one of those times when I would fold because I'm *never* actually ahead.
|
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Re: AQs late in party 300k
This is a pretty easy call, given the position you raised from. I think it is a mistake to assign a tight range to villain. You sometimes see a straight resteal here.
|
#9
|
|||
|
|||
Re: AQs late in party 300k
[ QUOTE ]
This is a pretty easy call, given the position you raised from. I think it is a mistake to assign a tight range to villain. You sometimes see a straight resteal here. [/ QUOTE ] I think you very rarely see a straight resteal on Party. You can't rule it out entirely but this is usually a ranges question. Calling is +EV, I'm sure, but this is the big Party Sunday and the standard sucks. There are 'better spots' I would only call here if BB has some reason to play back at me. |
|
|