Wynn 1k limit event bubble question

Justin A · #1 03-01-2007, 06:17 PM

I almost never play tournaments so forgive me if this question sucks.

Top 18 pay, there's 19 players left. 16-18 pays ~$1600 if that's relevant. Limits are at 2k/4k, with blinds of 1k/2k. I'm in the BB with 7k, so 5k after I post.

We're still on 3 tables, and my table has 7 players. MP(~30k) raises, and the button calls all-in for 1k. It's folded to me in the BB. Assuming MP will check it down postflop in hopes of knocking out the short guy, how strong does my hand need to be to call here?

In this case however, MP was out of his mind, so I couldn't count on him checking it down. Now how strong would my hand need to be to continue?

GOONERCAM · #2 03-01-2007, 06:21 PM

On the bubble. QQ+, ACE KING Suited. For me thats all. If the button gets knocked out u make the money and then u can open up. This may seem a bit tight but 4 me on the bubble its fair.

Dazza1984 · #3 03-01-2007, 06:49 PM

Not likely he'll check it down. Fold everything but 1010+, AK

omaha · #4 03-01-2007, 07:22 PM

Assuming you have seen the big stack, what has he been doing?

Is he raising any 2, because everyone else is a bunch of girls?

Or is he playing too tight, and just been paid off massively on his hands?

I think that most people consider this to be 'the bubble spot', ie just out of the money.

However, i think this is vvvvvvv wrong thinking.

I think the bubble should be when the payouts are going up a lot, which is probably around 5 ot 6 left.

Dont think 'im just out of the money, i need to sneak in', think 'i am coming 16th, and really need to be getting aggro, because only top 6 pay anything!"

Why? If you look at the payout structure, it is usually double your entry fee for the last few places, but a massive % of the prizemoney. SUre, you bust out more often, but when you get deep and win once, that is sometimes the same payout as 30 last in the money!

Mp, i assume has raised to 6k, which is the same as 7k for you, so you will be all in. Even if the button has AA, this doesnt really matter, as it is really just you versus the original raiser, playing for your entire stack.

If he is a tightie, I would call with JJ+, AQ+

If he was raising any two, I would probably call with 88+, A10+

This is a bit looser, but I think is along the right line. If he is raising any two, then a decent hand is our best bet to double up. If we keep folding, he will keep raising and we will be ground out.

If we call and win, others will be less inclined to steal off us next time.

The pot will not be checked down. THere is 15k in it, and he will bet 1k on all flops, in the (v small hope) that you fold.

GOONERCAM · #5 03-01-2007, 07:30 PM

Ok then argue with many theorists and the bubble theory.

Keevon · #6 03-01-2007, 07:49 PM

Which theorists are these exactly, and what is the "bubble theory"?

Justin A · #7 03-01-2007, 07:57 PM

omaha,

this is a limit tournament so the raise was to 4k, and it's 2k for me to call.

Justin A · #8 03-01-2007, 07:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
On the bubble. QQ+, ACE KING Suited. For me thats all. If the button gets knocked out u make the money and then u can open up. This may seem a bit tight but 4 me on the bubble its fair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok so there's not much validity to calling with a weaker hand in hopes of giving the button a better chance to bust out? That's my main question.