Chris Richardson Musings

[Caldarooni]

This is my third year taking AI betting seriously. Some of the old timers can verify my great success on Bo Bice two seasons ago, and Mcphee scored me some decent change last year.

This season my portfolio is Lakisha heavy, but I still shudder with lessons from the past on early favs, Anwar and Mario come to mind.

Anyway, I have learned much in my Idol viewing days, and thought I would share my most recent observations.

I feel strongly that Chris Richardson is a strong sleeper pick. He is from the right region (the south), he has the intangible to draw the girlie vote, and most importantly he has the talent to grow into an Idol. This last point is the one for debate, but I see a kid who can grow as the show progresses, who can harness this Timberlake appeal and become a performer capable of the "wow" factor.

An obvious concern is Blake, who is cut from the same cloth but seems more refined in his performances/auditions thus far. However, and again this is my opinion presented for discussion/debate, I feel Chris R. has the higher ceiling.

So much focus is on the girls, and rightfully so, but every year there are artists that grow as they learn from Idol. Remember Constantine outperformed Bo for awhile, Eliot never made an impact until late in the show, and many more examples are out there.

Anyway, I made a decent buy on Chris R when he hit 4 and thought I would share with the group.

I have come along way from investing so I could be interested while I watch with my girlfriend to scouring message boards for up to the minute Idol news [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

-Calda

[GrannyMae]

chris richardson will be a dream come true, or a nightmare for me.

i have always thrown a fan favorite out early, and thus made much more money on the season. an example is daughtry and mcphee from last season.

chris richardson is my sacrificial lamb in 2007.

HOWEVER, at 5-7 he is probably a great buy when looking at the dialidol numbers. not that i am buying any, just making a statement on the contracts potential value.

[Caldarooni]

The dialidol numbers were a significant factor in my purchase. Chris had a likeable performance, but certainly nothing to get too excited about but already seems to have a base. We have seen in past Idols how important this base can be to the advancement of a contestant.

This would be another reason I will not be surprised when Chris eventually outlasts Blake.

[curtains]

Richardson can't win IMO but really wouldn't be shocked if he's a good value right now.

People like Sabrina Sloan are the bad values right now IMO....shes just very unlikely to go up much more, and I don't think she can possibly withstand the momentum of Melinda and Lakisha. She was a fantastic find at 2 thru 5, but whoever kept buying her at 8 and 9 probably overvalued.

[Caldarooni]

Curtains,

"People like Sabrina are bad values"

I agree with this kind of sentiment. The trick is not to find people who are good enough to stick around each week or have enough of a base to stick around but are always in danger of going home. Fat Scott the abuser from 2 seasons ago and Kevin from last year are good examples. They will never show enough value to be anything but a waste of money, especially with the current Vig setup.

Most people who make these kind of buys will find as the contest dwindles they are hoping to get some of their money back, or even hope it hits 1 3 so they can recoup the smallest buy back.

I do disagree with the Richardson can't win statement. I understand what you are saying and why it is a vital consideration when making an investment. This is where my opinion can only be proved as the show progresses, but I firmly believe he has the ability to have one of those "wow" performances that will get everyone excited.

I think his personality will grow with the show, and he will be a very likeable contestant.

Of course I would encourage people who disagree to explain their feelings to help formulate a better picture of how he is perceived.

-Calda

[curtains]

The key to the show is to buy people who's price won't go down much very shortly. Yes perhaps it MIGHT not go up, but you can always cut bait and sort of break even. However if they have one good performance they can double or even triple in value. I think Richardson could definitely double in value and probably won't go much lower than he is now after his next performance.

The vig doesn't help matters though..... So not jumping out of my seat to buy him. Also Im retired.

[Aloysius]

GM / Cal / Curtains - great stuff, as a first timer this is very helpful.

[ QUOTE ]
and most importantly he has the talent to grow into an Idol. This last point is the one for debate, but I see a kid who can grow as the show progresses, who can harness this Timberlake appeal and become a performer capable of the "wow" factor.

[/ QUOTE ]

This certainly seems possible, imo. From the other factor standpoints (e.g. looks, likeability, stage presence) Balke and Richardson are pretty close (though I would give Richardson a slight edge here).

I haven't read their bios but it seems neither have had formal training. I think it's been clear that Richardson > Blake wrt natural singing ability. He sounds more assured, and he has an exuberance / confidence about him.

Blake handled the Keane song with some aplomb, but it's not a super difficult song to sing if you have the range (which he does). The fact that it wasn't, from a vocal standpoint, a homerun considering what a great choice it was... I thought could portend negatively for his run on Idol.

-Al