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#1
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need some basic EV help
I need some maths help please.. here is my problem
On the turn I bet $7 that was called to make a pot of $23.95, I am 92% fav at this point. I am all in on the river regardless and he somehow sucks out to the nuts.. He bets 43.78 which i call. This seems +EV maybe not optimal but not -EV. I am trying to calculate exactly how +EV it is.. so i can see if my session was good/bad/sucked out. I think i can calculate it thus.. assume HWR = his win rate then HWR = (1/(1-0.92)) -(HWR*$7) = -87.5 to win the river bet of $43.78+pot-turnbet not sure if this is right.. bright maths peeps please help! |
#2
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Re: need some basic EV help
I don't know where to start. There's not a single thing about your post that I understand.
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#3
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Re: need some basic EV help
Okay.. let me explain better
*Pot = 9.75 *My bet = 7 *Villain calls 7 *My probability of winning = 0.92 *At this point the river card is left to come and if it gives villain a better hand he pushes 47 more and i call the 47 - villain does not push the river if he does not gain the winning hand Q. is this +EV Now.. i think.. I put 7 into a pot of 16.75 with a prob of winning at 0.92 So villain wins 16.75 + 47 = 63.75 per 11.5 hands played 11.5 hands = (1/[1-0.92]) So it costs villain 7 * 11.5 = $80.5 to win $63.75, clearly a bad play Therefore I win 7*11.5 + the pot at 23.75 = $104.25 over 12.5 hands So.... my EV per hand = ( (104.25 villains long term loses) - (7 my bet on turn) - (47 river call) ) / 12.5 = $4.02 Now.. hopefully its clearer but is my maths right? is there an easier way to calc this. PS how do you avoid the suck out on the river too =D |
#4
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Re: need some basic EV help
Ok, I understand this better now.
On the turn, the villian's play is -EV. Here's how I calculate this: .08*63.75 - .92*7= -1.34 92% of the time he misses and loses 7 dollar. Eight percent of the he hits and wins the 9.25 in the pot plus your 7 dollar bet plus your remaining 47 on the river. This assumes you'll always call his push. |
#5
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Re: need some basic EV help
Phew.. i think i got it..
but how do i calc my EV? is it... 0.92*16.75 - .08*53 = 11.17 |
#6
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Re: need some basic EV help
Can someone validate my rather simple maths please.
[img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] |
#7
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Re: need some basic EV help
You have to be careful to define what you are computing your EV with respect to.
If you bet the $7, he calls and call any push then 92% of the time you win $16.75 and 8% of the time you lose $54. 0.92*$16.75 - 0.08*54 = +$11.09. That is your +EV compared to conceding the hand without betting $7. But that's not relevant for your decision. You would never do that. One other option is to bet enough to make him fold now. Then you get +$9.75, which is not as good as $11.09. Or, you could check, and still call a push. Then you make $9.75 92% of the time and lose $54 8% of the time for an EV of +$4.65. So the $7 bet is better than either a very large bet or a check. But if you could bet more and still get him to call that would be even better for you. You should also consider folding to some pushes. If you always fold, he figures that out and always pushes, and you always lose. But with $23.75 in the pot and a stack of $47, you only have to call one-third of the time to make it not worth his while to bluff. So why throw away the extra money by calling all the time? Your job is to protect your pots, not keep him honest. Leave that to his parole officer. |
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